Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The missiles could become a gamechanger in the war.
The missiles could become a gamechanger in the war.
What is happening?
Donald Trump said on October 12 that he’s ready to supply long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.
However, the U.S. president stressed he may first speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“I might have to speak to Russia, to be honest, about the Tomahawks,” Trump told reporters. “Do they want to have Tomahawks going in their direction? I don’t think so.”
A conditional warning to Moscow
Trump hinted that missile support depends on whether Russia ends the war.
“Maybe I’ll talk to him. I might say, look, if the war is not settled, I’ll send them the Tomahawks,” he said.
He described the cruise missile as “a very offensive weapon,” adding, “Russia does not need that.”
Trump pressures Putin for peace
Framing the missile threat as diplomatic leverage, Trump said Putin could benefit by ending the war.
“I think President Putin would look great if he got this settled,” he said. “And I think he’s going to settle it. If he doesn’t, it’s not going to be good for him.”
Kremlin deeply alarmed by missile talk
The Kremlin didn’t take the comments lightly. Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned that the Tomahawk issue is of “extreme concern,” adding,
“Now is really a very dramatic moment in terms of the fact that tensions are escalating from all sides.”
Zelensky supports missile delivery
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke earlier in the week, saying Tomahawk missiles might push Russia toward peace talks.
He said the delivery could force Moscow “to see the real state of affairs” and finally sit down at the negotiating table.
What can Ukraine hit with Tomahawks?
Using a map tool, we have tried to measure how far into Russia, Ukraine would be able to hit, if they are supplied with Tomahawk missiles.
Even though, the Tomahawks have a reach of up to 2500 kilometres /1550 miles), we have measured a reach of 2100 kilometres (1300 miles) to make the measurement more realistic.
We’ve put the launching point in Kiyv.
Moscow and St. Petersburg in reach
The most prominent possible targets are the major Russian cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Especially Moscow is important in this instance, as it is the center of power for the Russian government.
The heart of Russia’s drone production
Another possible target is the heart of Russia’s drone production in Kazan in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tartarstan.
The Tu-160 Strategic bomber is also produced in this zone.
West of Ukraine, it would be possible to hit the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, but this would be highly controversial, as this would mean that the Tomahawks should travel through NATO airspace.
Iskander-production
The mobile Russian missile system, Iskander, is a constant threat to the Ukrainian defense, as it can launch both ballistic and crusie missiles.
The system is produced in Yekaterinburg, which would be within reach of the Tomahawks – especially since this map is using a smaller radius for the Tomahawks than the claimed maximum.
Several sites for production of munitions
Russia is producing both munitions and artillery at several sites, and with the Tomahawks, Ukraine would be able to take out five of the most notable.
These targets are placed in Yekaterinburg. Kazan, Dzerzhinsk near Novgorod, Kolomna near Moscow and Akhtubinsk near Volgograd in the South of Russia.
Could force Russia to pull back
Russia is trying to break through the Ukrainian defense with several smaller assault groups before initating a larger campaign.
However, in order to launch a large-scale campagin, the Russian army needs logistics to keep supplying their forces with munition, food and medical equipment.
By attacking deep in Russian territory, Ukraine would be able to disrupt Russian logistics, making it much more difficult for the Russian forces to stage a large campaing.
Could pave the way for a counter-offensive
By disrupting Russian supply lines, Ukraine would theoretically be able to launch a large-scale counter-offensive of it’s own.
This would however require massive planning a manpower, making it unlikely to happen anytime soon.
This article is made and published by Jens Asbjørn Bogen, which may have used AI in the preparation
