Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Russia’s campaign in eastern Ukraine could demand an enormous human toll.
Fierce fighting rages in Eastern Ukraine, as Russian troops are trying to occupy the city of Prokovsk.
The city, which is now described as practically just rubble, is a key logistic hub in Donetsk Oblast in Eastern Ukraine it is concidered a “gateway” for other Ukrainian-controlled cities in the region, and it is also part of the Donbas-region, which is made up of Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast.
According to Reuters, the Donbas region is actually one of the biggest issues in the negotiations about a possible ceasefire: The Kremlin wants total control of the region, and Ukraine refuses to accept that.
As of now, Russia controls all of Luhansk Oblast and about 75 % of Donetsk Oblast, so on paper, it could look like Russia could easily seize all of the region, it so desperatly wants.
But if the Russian military has to fight to gain full control of Donbas, it could come at a horrendous cost.
Could cost another million troops
Professor Michael Clarke told Sky News that Moscow would likely need to accept very large additional casualties to seize all of Donetsk and Luhansk.
He said Russian forces have already suffered more than a million dead and seriously wounded since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022, and that taking the remaining Donbas would require another large number of sacrifices.
“If the Russians continue this grinding offensive and if they are prepared to take another half a million or a million casualties by, let’s say, September next year then they probably get the Donbas,” he said. (Source: Sky News)
Human cost
Clarke specified that by “casualties” he meant deaths and life-changing injuries that remove soldiers from fighting roles.
“By casualties, we should say that means dead and wounded – and by wounded, we mean life-changing injuries, injuries that take you away from the battlefield – not wounds that mean you have to go to hospital then back to the battlefield in a month,” he said.
He estimated Russian casualties at “significantly over a million now” and placed Ukrainian losses at roughly “300,000-400,000.”
Ground picture
Russia currently holds about a fifth of Ukrainian territory overall, while analysts say it controls large swathes of the Donbas.
It is thought Russian forces occupy at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk area, the resource-rich region known collectively as the Donbas.
The Institute for the Study of War estimated in October 2025 that Ukraine still holds roughly 6,500 square kilometres in Donetsk — about a quarter of the region — including a string of fortified cities such as Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Sloviansk
Winter factors
Clarke said the conflict is “at a stalemate in one respect and dynamic in another,” pointing to Ukrainian strengths at sea and on the economic front.
He added that winter generally advantages defenders:
“If you are on the defensive, you are dug in wherever you are and you don’t have to move, you just have to hold your ground. If you are on the attack, you have to move. You are moving forward, you are establishing new positions, so the ground is harder to work on and dig in.”
Sources: Sky News; Institute for the Study of War, Reuters
This article is made and published by Jens Asbjørn Bogen, who may have used AI in the preparation
