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According to sources fimiliar with the plan, Ukraine would still be the legal owners of the territory.
Earlier this week, Axios reported that the US and Russia was working on a draft for a plan for peace in Ukraine – and since then, parts of the draft has started to surface.
One of the biggest point of disagreement between Russia and Ukraine is the question of territory:
Russia demands that Ukraine cedes four Oblasts in the East of Ukraine in order to stop the fighting – a demand Ukraine has refused.
But US President Donald Trump and his administration seems to have come up with a solution for the question of territory – a very unusual one, but one that alligns perfectly with Trump’s background in business.
A “lease” agreement
Sources familiar with the matter told The Telegraph, that part of the plan would give Russia control of the parts of eastern Donbas, that is currently occupied by Russia.
They would, however, have to pay a “rental fee” to Ukraine, who would still be the legal owner of the territory
Moscow, in turn, would offer concessions in sections of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson under its control, while Kyiv would scale back aspects of its military posture and receive fewer Western weapons, according to the Financial Times.
Why is Donbas so important to Russia?
Donbas consists of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast in Eastern Ukraine. It is regarded as a powerhouse for Ukraine’s industry, and is also know for being rich in natural ressources.
According to the London-based Center for Economics and Business Research, the region accounted for roughly 15.7% of Ukraine’s GDP and 14.7% of its population before 2014 (the year of the Russian annexation of Crimea).
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022, Russia held referendums in four occupied Oblasts, including the two in Donbas, and the Kremlin has used the results as justification for claiming ownership of the Oblasts
The Western nations and Ukraine has rejected the results of the referendums.
Trump forcing Zelenskyys hands?
The draft proposal has surfaced while the Ukrainian government is marred by a corruption scandal, and commentators suggest that the timing is not coincidental.
Whether it is the idea of Donald Trump or Vladimir Putin, the theory is that the political turmoil in Ukraine could be used as leverage to pressure Ukrainian President Wolodomy Zelenskyy into accepting a peace on Moscow’s terms.
Would need a referendum – and that would be a “no”
With Ukraine’s constitution requiring a referendum for any territorial transfer — a vote analysts say would be doomed — a temporary lease has been presented as a possible workaround.
NBC reported that Ukraine was not part of the drafting process and was only briefed on a general outline.
Sources: Telegraph, Axios, Financial Times, Politico, NBC, Kyiv Post, Kyiv Independent, Center for Economics and Business Research
