Kathrine Frich
War rarely ends cleanly, and history shows that soldiers themselves can become decisive players when political deals clash with battlefield realities.
As new negotiations on Ukraine’s future unfold, questions now emerge about what happens if the country’s own army refuses to go along.
After high-level talks in Geneva, the United States announced progress on a draft peace framework, but concerns remain over Russia’s stance and the reaction inside Ukraine’s military ranks.
Geneva progress
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Ukraine had made substantial concessions during the latest discussions. “We have made tremendous progress,” he told reporters, as cited by CNN.
The network reported that US President Donald Trump, previously critical of Kyiv’s attitude toward Washington, is now satisfied with the direction of the talks.
Yet officials involved in the process warn that Moscow has not signaled acceptance of the compromises under consideration.
European and American diplomats told CNN that Russia remains the biggest unknown in the proposed deal.
Army’s influence
In an interview on TV24, Igors Rajevs, a member of Latvia’s Saeima and a reserve colonel, talked about what he called an overlooked factor in the negotiations.
He argued that Ukraine’s military itself could block any deal that requires it to halt combat operations.
“If the Ukrainian army doesn’t agree to this peace plan, they can say that they will fight until the end and you won’t be able to drive these soldiers out of the trenches,” Rajevs said.
He warned that a political agreement without the army’s support could trigger internal conflict.
Contested proposals
The public outline of the US proposal includes demands for Kyiv to hand over parts of Donbas not yet fully occupied by Russian forces, a provision CNN described as unacceptable to Ukrainian leaders.
The network reported that Washington’s plan would designate the area as a Russian demilitarized zone, with Kremlin forces barred from entry.
However, it also noted that instructing Ukrainian troops to withdraw from land “they fought and died for would be extremely difficult.”
Another concern is a proposed ceiling of 600,000 personnel for Ukraine’s armed forces, which some European officials fear would leave the country exposed.
Unresolved questions
Despite these issues, the White House said Sunday that Ukraine now considers the revised draft consistent with its security needs.
Experts quoted by CNN stressed that any agreement with Kyiv does not guarantee success, since Russia has not indicated it will alter its wartime objectives.
Rubio stated that NATO’s future role still requires clarification, though he believes the list of unresolved issues has narrowed significantly.
US officials are also discussing a possible visit by President Volodymyr Zelensky to continue talks in Washington.
Sources: LA.LV, CNN
