Kathrine Frich
A decision in New Delhi is being interpreted by some analysts as a significant blow to the Kremlin’s international strategy.
Commentators say the move undermines Moscow’s vision of a “multipolar world” and raises fresh questions about Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.
Tankers detained
India has detained three tankers linked to what is described as a “shadow fleet” involved in oil exports tied to Rosneft.
According to Dialog.UA, Russian economist Vyacheslav Shiryayev wrote that the move signals more than a maritime dispute. In his view, it reflects a broader weakening of Moscow’s position on the global stage.
He argues that the idea of the “Global South” bloc anchored by China, Russia, Iran and India is fracturing.
Without India and potentially Iran, he suggests, the concept risks becoming a survival strategy dependent largely on Beijing.
Strategic fallout
Shiryayev claims that if the United States draws one of Russia’s key partners into actions targeting the tanker fleet, Moscow faces not only the loss of an ally but a wider geopolitical defeat.
He links the development to the Kremlin’s stated aim in Ukraine of reshaping the global order and compelling the West to treat Russia as an equal power.
In his assessment, that objective now appears unattainable, and speculation about President Vladimir Putin’s waning focus on Ukraine takes on new meaning.
Mounting losses
Separately, LETA news agency reported, citing Western intelligence data, that Russian battlefield losses in January exceeded the number of new recruits joining the armed forces.
Bloomberg reported that 9,000 fewer people enlisted in January 2026 than the number of troops lost during the same period.
In December 2025, recruitment roughly matched losses, but winter fighting intensified casualty rates.
Sources cited by Bloomberg said Ukraine’s strategy of increasing Russian losses to as many as 50,000 per month may be partially succeeding, potentially forcing Moscow to consider another mobilisation wave.
Heavy cost
Despite Russian claims of progress, analysts at the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) assess that Moscow is sustaining heavy casualties for limited territorial gains.
CSIS estimates that up to 1.2 million Russian soldiers have been killed, seriously wounded or listed as missing since February 2022.
Over the past year alone, Russian losses are estimated at 425,000, or roughly 35,000 per month.
CSIS says the combined casualties of both Russian and Ukrainian forces could approach two million by spring.
The think tank calculates that since 2024 Russian advances have averaged between 15 and 70 metres per day in major offensives, with less than 1.5% of Ukrainian territory captured during that period.
A Bloomberg source familiar with Western intelligence assessments said that at the current pace, it could take around two years for Russian forces to seize the remainder of Donbas.
Sources: LA.LV, Dialog.UA, LETA, Bloomberg, CSIS
