Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
He also dismissed the Kremlin’s claims that Ukraine’s defence is on the verge of collapse.
Before Russian troops crossed the Ukrainian border in 2022, many analysts predicted Kyiv would struggle to withstand a sustained assault.
Instead, Ukrainian forces mounted stiff resistance, slowing Russia’s advance and reclaiming territory in several counteroffensives.
Western officials estimate Russian losses since February 2022 at close to 1.2 million casualties, though Moscow does not publish official figures. Neither side provides comprehensive casualty updates.
On the battlefield, Russian troops are reportedly advancing at a pace of between 15 and 70 metres per day in key sectors, a rate military observers describe as slow compared with major offensives of the past century.
Even though the war has turned into a grinding war of attrition, the Kremlin continues to claim that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable.
But not everyone in Russia seems to agree with that assessment.
Ukrainian army has “not been destroyed”
A rare moment of candour recently surfaced on Russian state television during a prime-time talk show, where a commentator openly acknowledged that Moscow has yet to achieve decisive success in Ukraine.
Vadim Gasanov, a documentary filmmaker, made the remarks on ‘The Meeting Place’, broadcast by Gazprom Media’s NTV channel, where he openly challenged the Kremlin’s narrative of a Russian victory being inevitable.
He said: “The Ukrainian army has not been destroyed; it did not capitulate.”
Russia at risk of “falling apart”
Gasanov suggested Ukraine remains capable of prolonging the fight.
He said: “As a country, Ukraine has every opportunity to continue its resistance, and it is successfully resisting.”
He added that Kyiv sees Moscow as “having major difficulties on the front” and warned of the risk of Russia “falling apart”.
“Guys, Ukrainian society believes that if they apply a bit more pressure, we’ll fall apart.”
The episode of The Meeting Place can be seen on YouTube with English subtitles here (opens new tab). Gasanov starts talking after approximately 3 minutes and 25 seconds.
Sources: Russian Media Monitor (YouTube), Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
