August M
Estonia’s military leadership has warned that Russia may regain significant combat capability within the next two years, raising concerns across NATO’s eastern flank about future security risks after the war in Ukraine.
The assessment, published in the Estonian Defence Forces’ 2025 annual report, argues that Moscow remains committed to long-term military expansion despite heavy battlefield losses, reports Kyiv Post.
Warning from Tallinn
According to the report, Russia’s ability to threaten neighbouring countries is unlikely to disappear even if fighting in Ukraine slows or pauses.
Estonian Defence Forces chief Andrus Merilo said current developments suggest Moscow is preparing for a prolonged confrontation with the West rather than a return to peacetime conditions.
“Current trends indicate that the war in Ukraine will not end with Russia losing the ability to conduct hostilities against us,” Merilo said, according to Estonia’s public broadcaster ERR.
He warned that Russia would likely spend the years after the Ukraine war rebuilding its military while continuing destabilisation campaigns and influence operations abroad.
Focus on readiness
Merilo said 2027 could become a critical year if Russia successfully restores its military strength and identifies what it sees as a strategic opportunity.
“In my opinion, 2027 is the year when Russia’s combat readiness will be restored, and if it then sees a favorable opportunity to use its armed forces, it will do it,” he said.
The report stressed that Estonia and its allies should accelerate defence preparations, including military modernisation, training and deterrence measures.
At the same time, Merilo said the warning should not automatically be interpreted as an immediate prediction of direct military attack.
“This does not mean that we should immediately assume a direct military attack,” he said, “but in the current security situation, we cannot rule out any options.”
Regional tensions
The report argued that NATO countries bordering Russia must be prepared to respond immediately if deterrence efforts fail.
Estonian officials have become increasingly vocal about regional security concerns following several incidents linked to Russia over the past year.
In one case, Moscow reportedly sent a fighter jet into NATO airspace after Estonia attempted to stop an unflagged tanker suspected of violating sanctions before escorting it toward Russian waters.
The Institute for the Study of War has also warned that the Kremlin is conducting information campaigns that could be used to justify future military actions in the region.
Sources: Kyiv Post, ERR, Ukrinform, Estonian Defence Forces report
