Analysis: One of Ukraine’s biggest needs is the one thing, the West can’t give them

• Air and missile defence
• Artillery and ammunition
• Fighter jets
• Financial support to cover a US$160 funding gap in the national budget
• Humanitarian aid for 10 million people

The list of needs for Ukraine in 2026 goes on, as the fight against the Russian invasion will have lasted for four years next week.

According to a recent report from the Kiel Institute, U.S. military support for Ukraine has dropped to nearly nothing in 2025. The European allies, on the other hand, have increased their support.

But no matter if Europe increases its support further and the U.S. restarts its military aid to Ukraine, one of Ukraine’s biggest needs is the one thing the West cannot provide.

Manpower.

Massive losses on both sides

In late January 2026, the Center for Strategic and International Studies released an analysis stating that Russia had suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties since the beginning of the war.

According to the same analysis, the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian casualties is somewhere between 2:1 and 2.5:1, meaning Ukraine has likely suffered between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties during the nearly four years of fighting.

This might make the numbers appear to be in Ukraine’s favour, but while Russia can afford to expend troops, however inhumane the strategy may be, the fallout from personnel shortages could be catastrophic for Ukraine.

For comparison, in 2020 the Russian population was approximately 146 million, according to Worldometers.

The Ukrainian population in 2020 was approximately 44.5 million, according to Worldometers.

Strategic vulnerability

On January 15, 2026, the Tactics Institute for Security & Counter Terrorism assessed that years of attritional warfare, combined with the erosion of morale, are turning into a strategic vulnerability for the war-torn country.

According to the assessment, two million Ukrainian citizens are currently wanted for evading military service, although this number appears to be more politically charged than factual, according to the researchers.

The report notes that there are currently 200,000 Ukrainian soldiers listed as AWOL, adding to operational concerns.

Military-wide shortages of infantry

In August 2025, The Defense Post cited a Ukrainian Armed Forces official as saying that more than 8,000 foreigners have joined the Ukrainian defence forces since the beginning of the war, but even with foreign volunteers, Ukraine’s defence is struggling.

On February 3, 2026, CNN cited Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, who estimated that most Ukrainian brigades have at most 10% infantry — only a third of what would traditionally be expected.

Additionally, Lee noted that there are fewer than ten Ukrainian infantry soldiers per kilometre of front line.

In August 2025, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported that the Ukrainian military had begun offering monthly salaries upwards of $2,900 to encourage men under the age of 25 to volunteer for military service.

This is necessary because the draft age in Ukraine is 25, lowered from 27 in April 2024.

Russia’s red line

In late December, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed a U.S.-backed 20-point draft peace plan that included Western security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a peace agreement.

According to the Kyiv Independent, the guarantees would be an “Article 5-like” plan, under which the U.S., NATO and the EU would provide security for Ukraine.

Article 5 refers to NATO’s so-called “Musketeers’ Oath,” which states that an attack on one member state is an attack on all, prompting a collective response.

However, Russia has repeatedly rejected the idea of Western “boots on the ground” in Ukraine, even in the case of peace.

The clock is ticking

Although Ukraine has proven formidable in defending itself, time currently works in Russia’s favour — not necessarily because it has the strategic upper hand on the battlefield, but because Ukraine risks running out of soldiers far earlier than Russia.

The West can supply Ukraine with as much aid as possible, but missiles and ammunition will not make a difference if there is no one to pull the trigger.

Sources: The Kiel Institute, Center for Strategic & International Studies, CNN, Worldometers, Interfax, The Tactics Institute for Security & Counter Terrorism, The Defense Post, The Kyiv Independent, Deutsche Welle, Institute for the Study of War, TASS

This article is made and published by Jens Asbjørn Bogen, who may have used AI in the preparation