Asger Risom
Petrol and diesel engines on borrowed time, specialists say
The future of Britain’s roads may look very different sooner than many drivers expect. Industry specialists say a shift already under way could steadily thin out familiar vehicles, even without an outright ban on using them.
A slow fade
Experts say petrol and diesel cars are unlikely to vanish overnight. Instead, they expect a gradual decline as buying habits change and older vehicles are retired.
Charging firm PodPoint says the turning point will come when new sales rules take effect, setting off a long tail where traditional engines become rarer each year. Second-hand vehicles will still be allowed, but numbers are expected to fall steadily.
The critical date
That shift is tied to the UK’s plan to ban the sale of most new petrol and diesel cars from 2030. Labour has confirmed it intends to press ahead with the policy as part of its push toward electric vehicles.
PodPoint explained: “It’s expected that ICE cars [cars with an Internal Combustion Engine] will gradually disappear off the roads as the ban on their sales comes into effect from 2030, with hybrids following suit after 2035. However, drivers will still be able to buy a used ICE car, making them likely to remain a sight on UK roads for some time.”
Numbers heading down
Diesel ownership is already shrinking. There are estimated to be around 11 million diesel cars still in use across the UK, but new registrations have collapsed.
Data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders shows just 6,175 new diesel cars were sold last year, down 12.5% on the year before. Diesel’s share of the new car market has fallen to 4.2%.
Looking further ahead, analysis from New AutoMotive suggests there could be as few as 250,000 diesel cars left on UK roads within the next decade.
UK stands firm
While the European Union recently softened its targets, allowing 10% of new cars sold in 2035 to be non-zero-emission, the UK has shown little sign of following suit.
A government spokesperson previously told Express: “We remain committed to phasing out all new non-zero emission car and van sales by 2035. More drivers than ever are choosing electric, and November saw another month of increased sales with EV’s accounting for one in four cars sold.
“We’re investing over £7.5 billion to support drivers and manufacturers make the switch to zero emission.”
What it means for drivers
Existing petrol and diesel cars will not be banned from the roads after 2030. But as fewer new models are sold and numbers decline, experts say traditional engines could become an increasingly uncommon sight.
For many motorists, the change may not arrive as a sudden ban — but as a gradual disappearance.
Sources: PodPoint, SMMT, New AutoMotive, UK Government, Express
