Asger Risom
A new study warns that millions of Americans could be infected in the coming decades if childhood vaccination rates continue to fall.
The early summer months typically bring news of travel plans, camp schedules, and outdoor fun—not public health warnings from epidemiologists. But beneath the surface of daily life, a troubling shift is underway. Something that most people under 40 have only read about in history books could be staging a dangerous return.
A new modeling study warns that if childhood vaccination rates in the U.S. continue to decline, millions of measles cases could emerge over the next 25 years. The projections include an estimated 170,200 hospitalizations and 2,550 deaths. Even more alarming: this resurgence could happen even if current immunization rates simply remain unchanged.
A perfect storm of misinformation and fatigue
Measles was declared eliminated in the United States in 2000. But declining vaccination rates—fueled by pandemic-related healthcare disruptions and rising distrust in public health institutions—are reversing that progress. “We’ve seen a worrisome pattern of decreasing routine childhood vaccinations,” said Dr. Nathan Lo, infectious disease expert at Stanford Medicine.
That drop has already had real consequences. A recent outbreak in western Texas has killed two children, infected over 620 people, and hospitalized dozens more, according to the study highlighted by Popular Science.
Why measles poses an outsized risk
Unlike many other preventable diseases, measles is extraordinarily contagious—capable of infecting up to 20 people per case. “With measles, we found that we’re already on the precipice of disaster,” said study co-author Matthew Kiang, also of Stanford. The research projects that measles could become endemic in the U.S. again within just two decades if action isn’t taken.
Before vaccines became widespread in the 1960s, 3 to 4 million Americans were infected every year. Hundreds died, and thousands more were hospitalized or left with long-term complications like brain swelling.
A preventable future
The good news is that a five percent increase in vaccination coverage would likely be enough to prevent the disease from gaining a permanent foothold again. “It’s worth emphasizing that there really shouldn’t be any cases at this point,” Kiang said. “Anything above zero is tragic. When you’re talking about potentially thousands or millions, that’s unfathomable.”
The researchers urge parents to speak with pediatricians and seek out trusted sources of information as the most effective safeguard against this entirely avoidable public health threat.