Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
It’s safe to say that the pre-war stockpiles of Russian tanks have plummeted.
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has lost vast numbers of personnel, vehicles, and equipment.
But how much have they actually lost?
It’s impossible to know for sure, as the Russian military does not disclose these numbers, but the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine provides a daily update on the estimated total losses of the Russians.
And the numbers are staggering.
Five-digit losses for tanks
In its update released early on Nov. 25, the Ministry estimates that the Russians have lost 11,368 tanks since the beginning of the war.
That in itself sounds like a huge amount, but you need to know what Russia had in stock before the war began to really grasp how much the Russians are actually struggling in Ukraine.
According to Defense-Blog, OSINT (Open-Source Intelligence) released an assessment of Russian stockpiles of tanks — and if these numbers are to be believed, the Russian army is at risk of losing its armor altogether.
Less than half left
Before the war, OSINT assessed that the Russians had more than 7,200 tanks in storage.
Now, that number has fallen to just under 2,900.
This means that Russia has lost more than half the tanks it had in storage in the soon-to-be four-year-long war.
Using satellite data, Jompy claims that more than 4,400 Russian tanks have been taken out of storage during the war.
Additionally, only 23 percent of the tanks are classified as in “decent” or “usable” condition.
Why don’t the numbers add up?
You have probably noted that the assessed number of Russian tanks lost from the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine is lower than the estimated pre-war stockpiles reported by OSINT.
This might be due to different methodologies in data collection.
The Ministry counts all Russian tanks lost, while OSINT focuses on visually confirmed data. This means the Ministry might count tanks that OSINT has not been able to verify.
According to users on the UK Defence Journal, it is likely that at least 20% of the lost Russian tanks are not visually verifiable.
You should also be aware that the numbers from the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine have not been independently verified.
Stockpiles not depleted — yet
No matter the exact numbers, it’s safe to say that Russia has lost a vast amount of tanks in the war in Ukraine.
In its Oct. 11-assessment of the war, Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggested that Russia is planning on ramping up tank-production to restock it’s numbers, and that tanks still play a vital role in the Russian offensive movements.
Recent battlefield assessments from the Atlas Institute of International Affairs suggest that Russia is instead relying on small groups of soldiers attempting to infiltrate Ukrainian lines, signalling a possible change in strategy by the Russian’s.
Sources: Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, Jomby/ONIST, Defense-Blog, UK Defense Journal, Kyiv Independent, United24 Media, Institute for the Study of War
