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In fact, Trump’s threats might push Brazil to look across the Pacific – towards China.
In fact, Trump’s threats might push Brazil to look across the Pacific – towards China.
What is happening?
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison after Brazil’s Supreme Court convicted him of plotting a coup following his 2022 election defeat.
The ruling marks a historic first: no other Brazilian ex-president has ever been convicted for crimes against democracy.
Supreme Court delivers landmark verdict
The conviction came from a panel of five justices, four of whom voted to convict Bolsonaro on five serious charges, including attempting to abolish democracy by force, orchestrating a coup, and damaging public property.
House arrest and heavy accusations
Bolsonaro, currently under house arrest, was found to have acted with “the purpose of eroding democracy and institutions,” according to Justice Lucia.
The court concluded that his actions were part of an organized attempt to retain power through unlawful means.
Military ties and authoritarian admiration
A former army captain, Bolsonaro has long expressed admiration for Brazil’s military dictatorship, which ruled from 1964 to 1985 and was responsible for hundreds of deaths.
This history added weight to the charges and the public’s reaction to his conviction.
Trump reacts
The ruling drew immediate criticism from Donald Trump, Bolsonaro’s political ally.
The U.S. president called the sentence a “terrible thing” and “bad for Brazil,” echoing earlier claims that the case was a political “witch hunt.”
Trump’s threats had no effect
Ahead of the trial, The White House wrote a letter to teh Brazilian government, making it clear that if the case against Bolsonaro was not dropped, Brazil would be hit with a 50% tariff on exports to the US.
The Brazilian Supreme Court rejected the demands, and the current Brazilian President, Lula Da Silva, furiously stated that a US President neither should nor could interfere in a Brazilian trial.
U.S. retaliation begins
Following the conviction, the Trump administration reportedly imposed tariff hikes, sanctions on the presiding judge, and revoked visas for most Brazilian Supreme Court justices.
Trump ally Marco Rubio, now Secretary of State, condemned the ruling as unjust and hinted at further U.S. responses.
Brazil pushes back
Brazil’s Foreign Ministry quickly fired back, calling Rubio’s comments a threat to Brazilian sovereignty.
The ministry emphasized that democracy in Brazil would not be intimidated by foreign pressure, reaffirming support for the court’s decision.
Tariffs pushing Brazil into China’s arms?
According to The Diplomat, Brazilian exports to the U.S. make up 2% of the countries GDP.
Exports to China, on the other hand, makes up 5% of Brazils GDP, making Trump’s tariffs unlikely to have much effect.
In fact, it might even push Brazil to look across the Pacific in an effort to increase trade with China, which would be a massive backfire for Trump.
Brazil and China are already part of BRICS – a political and diplomatic coordination forum including 10 countries.
Political ramifications ahead of 2026 election
Though convicted and barred from running for office, Bolsonaro insists he plans to run in Brazil’s 2026 presidential election.
The lone dissenting vote—by Justice Luiz Fux—raises the possibility of appeals and legal delays that could keep the case in limbo closer to the election.
Bolsonaro’s legal team slams the verdict
Bolsonaro’s defense team called the 27-year sentence “absurdly excessive” and vowed to appeal.
The legal process now enters a new phase, with the potential to further divide Brazilian society ahead of a heated political season.
A broader crackdown on far-right leaders
Bolsonaro’s conviction follows legal troubles for other far-right leaders this year, including France’s Marine Le Pen and the Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte.
The ruling signals a global shift in how democratic institutions respond to threats from within.
