Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
It drops from a record level in 2024, though.
It drops from a record level in 2024, though.
What is happening?
Trade between Russia and China fell significantly in the first half of 2025, pointing to fresh signs of strain in the Russian economy.
Total bilateral trade reached £79.3 billion (US$106.48 billion), down 9.1% compared to the same period last year, Moscow Times reports.
Chinese Exports to Russia Take a Hit
Exports from China to Russia fell 8.4% during the first two quarters of 2025.
The decline reflects broader challenges in Russia’s import capacity amid economic turbulence and ongoing international sanctions.
Russian Exports to China Also Decline
China’s imports from Russia dropped even more sharply, down 9.6%.
Despite this, Russia still posted a trade surplus with its eastern ally—though that too shrank by 10.2% year-on-year.
Russia’s Growing Dependence on Beijing
Faced with sweeping Western sanctions since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has leaned heavily on China as a key economic partner.
Trade with Beijing has become a vital lifeline for Russia’s sanctioned economy.
What the Two Nations Trade
Russia supplies China with vital commodities such as oil, gas, coal, copper, timber, and seafood.
In return, China exports consumer goods including cars, computers, and smartphones—items increasingly hard to source elsewhere.
A Record Year in 2024, Despite Slowdown
Even with the current downturn, trade between the two countries reached a record high in 2024, totalling £182.22 billion (US$244.81 billion).
That marked a slight rise from the previous year’s total of £178.74 billion (US$240.11 billion).
Growth in Trade Slows Dramatically
Despite setting records, the pace of trade growth has dramatically slowed.
In 2024, year-on-year trade growth between Russia and China was just 1.9%—a stark contrast to the 26% surge reported in 2023.
Trump Threatens New Tariffs on Russia
Adding to the pressure, US President Donald Trump on Monday warned of steep secondary tariffs on Russia unless Moscow reaches a deal with Kyiv within 50 days.
The move would further isolate Russia by penalizing its trading partners.
“Very Severe” Tariffs Could Be Coming
During a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump threatened tariffs of up to 100%, though he did not specify which goods might be targeted.
He described them as “very severe” and meant to push for an end to the war.
Economic Gloom Grows in Moscow
Russia is already battling high inflation and interest rates at 20%. With falling oil and gas revenues, public finances are under pressure.
Although Moscow claims 4.3% growth in 2024—outpacing the U.S. and U.K.—analysts warn of a looming recession.
