Camilla Jessen
The Baltic states are drawing up contingency plans for potential mass evacuations.
The Baltic nations are preparing for potential mass evacuations as Moscow ramps up military spending and border provocations, officials say to United24 Media.
Baltic states step up civilian defense
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are drafting emergency evacuation plans for civilians amid growing fears of Russian aggression, according to a Reuters report published October 10.
The three NATO member states—each formerly occupied by the Soviet Union—have long warned of the risks posed by Moscow’s expanding military budget, border violations, and disinformation campaigns since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Preparing for the worst
Officials in all three countries have doubled defense spending and begun drawing up detailed contingency plans to protect civilians in the event of a crisis.
“Threats could vary,” said Renatas Pozela, Lithuania’s fire and rescue chief.
“It’s possible we will see a mighty army along the borders of the Baltics, with the apparent goal of taking all three countries in three days to a week.”
The plan
The plans outline potential scenarios including:
- Sabotage of critical infrastructure and communications
- Mass migration and displacement
- Civil unrest among Russian-speaking minorities
- Cyber and disinformation attacks aimed at sparking panic
Shelters and evacuation routes identified
Local governments are identifying shelters, transport corridors, and essential supply depots to ensure public safety if an evacuation is ordered.
In Kaunas, Lithuania’s second-largest city, officials say capacity has been secured to house up to 300,000 evacuees in schools, churches, and sports arenas.
“It’s a very reassuring message to our society that we are ready and we are planning,” said Kęstutis Budrys, Lithuania’s National Security Advisor.
“We have done our homework.”
Estonia and Latvia plan for large-scale movement
In Estonia, civil protection officials are preparing to rehouse up to 10% of the population—about 140,000 people—in temporary shelters and rural areas.
Neighboring Latvia estimates that up to one-third of its citizens could be displaced in the event of a major conflict.
Officials in all three countries stressed that the measures are precautionary, not predictive, but reflect deep regional concern about the Kremlin’s intentions.
Military buildup across the border
The Baltic states’ preparations follow reports that Russia plans to increase defense spending by nearly 70% in 2024, with significant investment in missile systems, troop mobilization, and drone production.
NATO officials have also confirmed an increase in Russian military aircraft and drones violating Baltic airspace in recent months, as well as cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure.
Strengthening defenses along the eastern frontier
Earlier this year, Lithuania announced an ambitious plan to reinforce its borders with Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave by constructing a three-layer defense system designed to delay and repel any potential invasion.
The system will combine anti-tank barriers, minefields, and fortified positions, coordinated with NATO’s new regional defense strategy for Eastern Europe.
“Prepared, not panicked”
Baltic officials emphasized that the planning is not an indication of imminent conflict but part of a broader effort to strengthen resilience and boost public confidence.
“We must be prepared, not panicked,” said a senior Estonian defense planner quoted by Reuters. “The best way to prevent war is to show that we’re ready for it.”
This article is made and published by Camilla Jessen, which may have used AI in the preparation
