Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Military analysts believe that Russia’s latest summer campaign in Ukraine is unlikely to yield a decisive victory or defeat. Instead, it may deliver symbolic gains sufficient to embolden President Vladimir Putin to prolong the war.
Military analysts believe that Russia’s latest summer campaign in Ukraine is unlikely to yield a decisive victory or defeat. Instead, it may deliver symbolic gains sufficient to embolden President Vladimir Putin to prolong the war.
War Escalates After Failed Truce Talks
Despite intermittent ceasefire negotiations, the war in Ukraine has escalated sharply in recent weeks.
Russia has launched an unprecedented wave of airstrikes on Ukrainian cities, while Ukraine has struck back with deep drone raids on Russian bomber bases.
These clashes are seen as the prelude to a much larger confrontation.
A Crushing Blow to Ukrainian Morale
According to The Economist, Russia’s upcoming summer offensive aims to break Ukrainian morale rather than achieve territorial dominance.
Putin is reportedly seeking a symbolic win—regardless of cost—to showcase strength both domestically and internationally.
Kostiantinivka: The Next Frontline
Eastern Ukraine’s Kostiantinivka, near the embattled Bakhmut, is bracing for a major assault.
Considered a logistical hub and gateway to Donetsk’s last Ukrainian-held bastions, the city now endures up to 25 precision bombs daily.
Civilians evacuated when martial law began, while Russian troops advances from three directions.
The Strategic Stakes in Donetsk
Ukrainian intelligence believes that Russia’s campaign will center on seizing industrial towns in Donetsk, with Pokrovsk and Kostiantinivka as prime targets.
Analysts expect incremental Russian advances, though few believe Moscow can capture the entire region outright, per The Daily Telegraph.
Northern Diversions: The Sumy Threat
In northeastern Ukraine, around 50,000 Russian troops are massing in Sumy province, slowly advancing toward the regional capital.
Although seen as a diversionary tactic, the move has successfully tied up Ukrainian defenses and mirrored cross-border operations seen in 2023.
High-Tech Russian Tactics: Meet Rubikon
First seen in 2024 near Kursk, Rubikon is reportedly a well-resourced unit under Russia’s Ministry of Defense.
Their use of “mothership drones” that deploy smaller UAVs via hard-to-jam connections is reshaping the battlefield.
Ukrainian officers describe them as a serious threat to logistics and command posts.
China’s Subtle Role in the Drone War
Chinese involvement, though indirect, is becoming more apparent. While Beijing refuses to supply Ukraine with drones,
President Zelenskyy accuses China of enabling Russia’s drone production.
The newest drones can fly high and resist jamming, leaving Ukraine dependent on aging missile systems it lacks in sufficient quantity.
Russia’s Disposable Strategy
Mihailo Kmetiuk of Ukraine’s Typhoon drone unit notes that Russia’s willingness to sacrifice troops fuels ongoing offensives.
He claims eight out of ten new Russian recruits perish in combat, yet the Kremlin continues recruiting 10,000–15,000 new soldiers monthly with hefty enlistment bonuses.
The Slow Grind of Attrition
Despite Russian reinforcements, progress remains slow. Small infantry groups operate cautiously to avoid drone detection.
These tactics limit Russian advances and increase casualties, highlighting the broader trend of attritional warfare that defines the current phase of the conflict.
Tactical Stalemate, Strategic Messaging
While frontlines have barely shifted in three years, Russian leadership frames the summer push as a “final offensive.”
Ukrainian sources cite captured Russian officers who describe the campaign as a psychological strike meant to weaken national resolve.
Can Ukraine Hold the Line?
Opinions are split.
While some believe Russia lacks the strength for a breakthrough, others fear that Ukraine’s defensive edge is eroding.
Officer Eduard from Ukraine’s 93rd brigade warns that Russia now leads what he calls a “drone marathon” at the front, threatening Ukraine’s once-superior drone capabilities.
What Might This Offensive Achieve?
A total Russian victory appears unlikely, but even modest territorial gains could allow Putin to claim a shift on the map.
This perception of momentum might be enough to justify prolonging the war—both to the Russian public and the international stage.
A Potential Window for Diplomacy?
Once the dust settles from this summer’s offensive, there may be a renewed opportunity for peace talks.
But with Russia’s proven tolerance for casualties, experts warn that the conflict could grind on, exhausting Ukraine’s capacity even as Russian losses mount.