Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Furthermore, it shows that the Kremlin has no interest in peace in Ukraine.
Analysts suggest, it could be part of a broader plan to preapre for war with NATO.
What is happening?
An insider source with a strong track record for accurate reporting on the Russian military stated that approximately 292,000 people signed contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense between January 1 and September 15, 2025, Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.
That works out to about 7,900 new recruits per week, or roughly 31,600 per month.
Strategic reserve forming since July
According to the source, some of the new recruits are being assigned to a strategic reserve, which Russia began forming in early July 2025.
However, it remains unclear how many of these troops are headed for the reserve versus being sent directly to the frontline in Ukraine.
Casualties outpace recruitment for most of the year
Data from the Ukrainian General Staff shows that Russia suffered between 32,000 and 48,000 casualties per month from January to July 2025—significantly more than the monthly average recruitment rate.
Only in August (29,000) and the first half of September (13,000) did casualties fall below recruitment levels.
Russia’s offensive becomes less costly
Between May and August 2025, Russian forces reportedly made gains with fewer losses compared to earlier in the year.
Analysts at ISW noted a reduction in casualties per square kilometer seized, suggesting that Russia’s updated tactics may be helping limit losses.
Shift to smaller assault tactics
One factor contributing to lower casualties is a tactical shift.
Russian forces are increasingly conducting assaults in small infantry groups, using infiltration tactics to find and exploit gaps in Ukraine’s understaffed defenses.
This approach allows them to minimize exposure and maximize impact.
A calculated bet on slower advances
The creation of a strategic reserve suggests that the Russian command believes it can maintain current frontline operations without deploying all new recruits.
This decision implies confidence in slower, more methodical tactics that rely on fewer troops for incremental gains.
Putin’s attrition strategy remains in play
President Vladimir Putin continues to promote a theory of victory based on attrition—slow, persistent advances that wear down Ukrainian forces over time.
Holding back part of the new manpower suggests the Kremlin is satisfied with this “foot pace” progress, at least for now.
Eyes on future conflict beyond Ukraine?
While the immediate aim may be Ukraine, the strategic reserve could also be part of broader preparations for a potential conflict with NATO.
The Kremlin is simultaneously investing in youth military-patriotic programs, indicating a long-term plan to bolster its armed forces in the years ahead.
This article is made and published by Jens Asbjørn Bogen, which may have used AI in the preparation
