August M
A growing network of oil tankers used to evade western sanctions is drawing heightened international scrutiny, as enforcement efforts begin to spill into risky encounters at sea. Analysts warn that attempts to curb the trade could edge closer to direct military confrontation.
The vessels, linked to Russia, Iran and Venezuela, are increasingly central to sustaining sanctioned oil exports to buyers including China and India.
Fleet in focus
According to reporting by the Guardian, the so-called shadow fleet has expanded rapidly since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Researchers estimate it now numbers between 900 and 1,200 ageing tankers worldwide, operating under opaque ownership structures and frequently changing or fraudulent flags.
Russia has recently gone further by reflagging some former shadow tankers under its own national flag, an open challenge to European authorities. The fleet has also spawned a wider illicit ecosystem, including fake maritime registries, shell companies and brokers willing to facilitate sanctions evasion.
Rising enforcement
Western governments have stepped up efforts to police the vessels. The United States has carried out interdictions off Venezuela, including helicopter-borne boardings of tankers accused of smuggling oil in violation of sanctions.
European states including Estonia and France have also stopped ships suspected of belonging to Russia’s shadow fleet.
Ukraine has targeted tankers it accuses of supporting sanctions evasion, including a drone strike announced last week on a Russian tanker in international waters off Libya. Kyiv described it as its first such operation in the Mediterranean, far from Ukrainian territory.
Experts say the more assertive enforcement posture, combined with signs Russia is prepared to use military assets to protect tankers, has significantly raised the risk of escalation.
A dangerous balance
Incidents this year have underlined the danger. An Estonian attempt to intercept a tanker in the Gulf of Finland was followed by a Russian fighter jet briefly entering Estonian airspace.
Analysts say such episodes suggest Moscow views the fleet as a strategic asset worth defending.
Despite tougher rhetoric from Europe and new US sanctions, many observers believe appetite for sustained maritime confrontation remains limited, particularly where Russia is involved.
The shadow fleet continues to thrive in part because sanctioned oil can be sold at a discount, while shipowners earn premiums for taking the risk, reports The Guardian.
As long as those incentives remain, specialists warn that sanctions evasion is likely to persist, even as the geopolitical stakes at sea continue to rise.
Sources: The Guardian
