Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
The trilateral negotiations continues, but we shouldn’t get our hopes up for an end to the war.
US, Ukrainian and Russian officials remained locked in negotiations in the United Arab Emirates.
The meetings continued behind closed doors, with officials signaling progress in process but offering few details on substance.
The negotiations continue today, Thursday, February 5, but we should not get our hopes up for the parties to agree on a deal.
At least not if it is anything short of the Russian demands.
Western troops “categorically unacceptable”
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes in its February 4 update on the war in Ukraine that senior Russian officials have publicly reiterated hardline positions this week:
- Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said any deployment of Western troops to postwar Ukraine would be “categorically unacceptable,” warning that such forces would be seen as legitimate military targets.
- Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia would continue the war until Kyiv “makes the appropriate decisions,” signaling no shift from Moscow’s stated objectives.
- Former Ukrainian lawmaker Viktor Medvedchuk, a Kremlin-aligned ally of President Vladimir Putin, said references to Western troop deployments make negotiations a “dead end,” insisting Russia would “never allow” such a force.
ISW assesses that these statements are part of the Kremlin’s strategy of shaping the narrative in advance so it can justify rejecting any future peace agreement that doesn’t meet its terms.
The “root causes”
ISW also notes that Maria Zakharova stated that a resolution to the war is impossible unless it addresses Russia’s so-called “root causes.”
The “root causes” is a phrase used by the Kremlin to refer to a series of demands, including a massive reduction of Ukrainian military forces, as well as the replacement of the Ukrainian government with a pro-Russian one.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian Foreign Ministry, RBC
