Nicolai Haugsted
A British author believes the damage to America’s international reputation could outlast Trump’s presidency by decades.
Predicting the future is a risky business. History is littered with confident forecasts that never came close to reality, particularly when technology and politics are involved.
But one British writer and journalist has spent decades making predictions about the world ahead, and some of his earlier observations have proved remarkably relevant.
Long before smartphones became everyday essentials and social media transformed human relationships, Jonathan Margolis was already examining how emerging technologies might reshape society. He also anticipated the growing threat of Islamist terrorism before the September 11 attacks in 2001.
Now, more than a quarter of a century later, Margolis has turned his attention to the world of 2066, Newsner can report.
And among his predictions is a particularly troubling assessment of the United States under the long-term shadow of Donald Trump’s presidency.
A futurist with a history of looking ahead
Margolis first attracted attention for his forecasts in his 2000 book A Brief History of Tomorrow.
Rather than embracing the relentlessly gloomy predictions often associated with futurists, the British journalist and author challenged conventional thinking about technological progress.
He even describes himself as an “apocaloptimist,” combining an awareness of potential catastrophe with a belief that humanity can still make progress.
His earlier work explored the rise of wearable technology, the social isolation that could accompany widespread internet use, and the growing danger posed by Islamist extremism.
Those observations have since gained renewed attention, although anticipating broad developments does not mean every future prediction will prove accurate.
In an October 18 article for The Independent, Margolis presented a fresh collection of forecasts about what life could look like four decades from now.
His predictions cover everything from artificial intelligence and employment to religion, demographics and international politics.
But his assessment of America’s future is among the most striking.
America may never regain its former influence
Margolis believes the international balance of power could look dramatically different by 2066.
His central geopolitical prediction is that China will overtake the United States to become “the most significant nation” on the global stage.
Interestingly, he does not necessarily expect America to lose its position as the world’s wealthiest country.
Instead, he foresees a future in which the United States remains economically powerful but struggles to recover its international reputation.
Margolis attributes that potential decline in prestige to the lasting consequences of Trump’s presidency.
According to his forecast, the damage to America’s global standing could prove so significant that the country never fully regains its previous influence.
He assigns an 80% probability to the scenario.
That figure represents Margolis’s personal assessment, rather than a statistically established probability or a consensus among geopolitical experts.
Still, it is one of the predictions he expresses the greatest confidence in.
And his concerns about political leadership extend well beyond the rivalry between Washington and Beijing.
Could artificial intelligence eventually replace politicians?
Artificial intelligence is already transforming workplaces, businesses and the way people access information.
Margolis believes its influence could eventually reach the highest levels of government.
He raises the possibility that some countries might replace traditional democratic administrations with systems governed by AI.
The motivation, in his hypothetical scenario, would be to prevent populist political leaders from gaining control.
Such a development would fundamentally change the relationship between citizens and the institutions governing them.
However, Margolis considers the possibility relatively unlikely, assigning it a 20% chance by 2066.
The forecast also raises obvious questions about accountability, political freedom and who would ultimately control the technology.
For now, AI-run governments remain speculation rather than an established direction of political development.
The future of work could look very different
Margolis also expects artificial intelligence to transform the financial realities of everyday life.
As machines become capable of performing more tasks currently handled by humans, he suggests governments may eventually provide citizens with a guaranteed income.
Under such a system, people could receive enough financial support to cover their basic needs regardless of whether they choose to work.
He puts the probability of that scenario at 50%.
But workers hoping to escape automation by learning practical trades might encounter an unexpected problem.
Margolis predicts that professions such as plumbing could become overcrowded as people seek jobs they believe machines cannot easily replace.
If too many workers make the same career move, competition could become fierce.
He gives that possibility a 60% chance.
Machines could even become objects of worship
Perhaps one of Margolis’s most unusual forecasts concerns religion.
He suggests that increasingly sophisticated AI systems could eventually attract followers who treat them as divine beings.
His reasoning is that artificial intelligence could offer something traditional religious figures cannot provide in the same immediate, interactive way.
People could ask questions, seek guidance and receive direct responses from the technology.
Margolis assigns a 65% probability to the emergence of AI-centered worship.
Meanwhile, he expects major demographic changes.
Smaller families and longer lifespans could produce societies with fewer children and growing populations of relatively healthy older adults.
He considers that outcome 70% likely.
Even the future may not be able to fix printers
Despite the serious implications of his political and technological forecasts, Margolis has not abandoned his sense of humor.
He gives printers a 99% chance of continuing to jam in 2066.
Apparently, even another four decades of technological progress might not be enough to eliminate one of modern office life’s most persistent annoyances.
Humanoid robots do not escape his skepticism either.
Margolis predicts a 90% chance that human-shaped machines will still struggle to carry cups of tea upstairs without spilling them.
His more playful scenarios also include a Premier League football club suffering a dramatic fall into League Two and younger generations eventually reconsidering some of their current progressive beliefs.
The humor provides a contrast to his more consequential forecasts about political power and artificial intelligence.
A warning rather than a certainty
Margolis’s predictions offer a provocative picture of a world in which technological progress does not necessarily translate into greater political stability.
Artificial intelligence could reshape employment, religious beliefs and even the institutions that govern society.
At the same time, established global powers could find themselves struggling to preserve their influence.
His prediction about America’s future stands out because of the confidence he attaches to it.
But forecasting events 40 years into the future remains inherently uncertain, regardless of how accurately someone may have anticipated previous developments.
For Margolis, the possibility of China surpassing the United States is not simply about economic competition.
His argument is that a country’s international reputation can suffer consequences that outlast the political leader responsible for them.
Whether Trump’s presidency ultimately leaves the permanent mark Margolis anticipates will depend on decades of political decisions, international relationships and developments that have yet to unfold.
