Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
According to the sources, there are two main reasons, the Russian leader won’t let Trumps ultimatum force his hand.
According to the sources, there are two main reasons, the Russian leader won’t let Trumps ultimatum force his hand.
What is happening?
Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to reject President Donald Trump’s demand for a ceasefire in Ukraine, sources close to the Kremlin tells Reuters.
Instead Putin remains focused on military objectives, not diplomatic concessions, even as Trump threatens sweeping sanctions and 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil.
Four regions still in Putin’s crosshairs
The Kremlin’s immediate war aim remains unchanged: full control of the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.
Only once those areas are completely under Russian control will Putin consider negotiating a peace deal, according to insiders familiar with Kremlin thinking.
Walking a fine line
While Putin is reportedly wary of alienating Trump and missing a chance to rebuild ties with Washington, Kremlin sources say his territorial goals take precedence.
The Russian president believes showing weakness now could cost him political credibility and support at home.
Peace talks: Real effort or diplomatic theater?
Three rounds of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine since May have been largely symbolic, sources suggest.
Moscow’s strategy appears focused on proving to Trump it is not dismissing diplomacy outright, while making little actual progress beyond limited humanitarian discussions.
Arms to NATO, Tariffs on Russia
Trump has ramped up pressure on the Kremlin, arming NATO allies and threatening sanctions that would further isolate Russia economically.
His special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is set to visit Moscow this week, signaling that the White House still sees a narrow window for a ceasefire deal before the deadline.
Putin faces pressure at home
Despite recent gains in Ukraine, Russian forces have advanced slowly and at high cost.
Ukraine lost over 500 square kilometers in July alone, yet analysts point out that since 2024, Russia has seized less than 1% of Ukrainian territory.
Some Russian insiders say Putin risks internal backlash if he halts the war prematurely.
Kyiv reels from deadly strikes
Ukraine’s Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko has urged global leaders to intensify pressure on Russia following a devastating airstrike in Kyiv that killed 31 people, including five children.
Legacy vs. Diplomacy
Analysts and sources say Putin sees the war in Ukraine as essential to his political legacy—part of a long-standing belief that Russia must defy Western pressure to protect its sovereignty.
While he values Trump’s personal rapport, he appears unwilling to sacrifice strategic goals for diplomacy’s sake.
Sanctions bite, but don’t break war machine
U.S. and European sanctions have severely dented Russia’s economy, freezing $300 billion in assets and slashing foreign investment.
Yet Russia continues to sustain its war effort, aided by arms from North Korea and critical imports from China. As one Kremlin insider put it,
“There’s not much more they can do to us.”
U.S. Peace Offer Rebuffed
Earlier this year, Washington reportedly offered to lift sanctions and recognize Russian control of Crimea and other occupied territories if Putin agreed to a full ceasefire.
Despite viewing the proposal as a “fantastic chance,” sources say Putin turned it down—convinced that ending the war now would be far harder than continuing it.
