Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
In fact, some predictions paint an even bleaker picture of the future of Russia.
In fact, some predictions paint an even bleaker picture of the future of Russia.
What is happening?
Leaked demographic forecasts circulating in Russia suggest the country could lose at least a quarter of its population over the next half-century.
According to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR), this dramatic decline is closely tied to the human cost of Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine.
Young men are being lost at an alarming rate
Ukraine’s military intelligence estimates that over 1 million Russian troops have been killed or wounded since the start of the full-scale invasion.
The majority are men between 20 and 35 — prime working and reproductive age — a trend with serious implications for the country’s future.
Russia already faces a labour crisis
HUR reports that many Russian businesses are struggling with labour shortages.
Enrollment in vocational schools is also dropping, which signals a worsening pipeline of skilled workers.
These early indicators could be a preview of deeper economic and social problems to come.
Far East regions hit hardest by war’s toll
Russia’s Far Eastern regions are seeing the steepest demographic declines.
According to HUR, these areas have lost large numbers of men who were drafted and sent to fight — or die — on the front lines.
Migrant labour seen as short-term fix
To ease the mounting pressure, Russian authorities are increasingly turning to labour migrants.
But some of these same workers are also being recruited to fight in Ukraine, adding to the cycle of loss and instability, HUR says.
Nearly 1.1 million Russian combat losses since 2022
According to Ukraine’s General Staff, as of September 18, Russia’s total combat losses since February 24, 2022, are estimated at 1,098,380 personnel.
This figure includes those killed and wounded in action — a staggering human toll by any measure.
Fewer newborns
The loss of young men, however, is not the only demographic problem, Russia is facing.
According to a report from Carnegie Endowment, Russia is also suffering from a declining birth rate.
Aging population
Add to that the fact that the Russian population in general is getting older.
The Carnegie Endowment report states that 18 % of the Russian population is aged 65 or above, and that number is expected to increase, putting future strain on the Russian pension system.
Can get even worse
The leaked forecast paints a bleak picture of the future Russian society, but it can get even worse.
According to UN Reports, the wrost-case scenario for Russia is a drop in population to 57 million in 2100 from the current 140+ million.
If this scenario becomes reality, Russia would have lost more than half of its population in just 75 years.
This article is made and published by Jens Asbjørn Bogen, which may have used AI in the preparation
