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It can explain why “ordinary people” become ruthless henchmen for authoritarian leaders.
A new academic study revisits one of the darkest questions in modern politics. Why do some people become ruthless enforcers for dictators, while others turn against the same regimes from within?
According to new research, the answer is not fanaticism or sadism. Instead, it often comes down to a far more mundane force: fear that one’s career has stalled.
Unexpected motive
The argument is laid out in Making a Career in Dictatorship: The Secret Logic behind Repression and Coups, a new book by Adam Scharpf of the University of Copenhagen and Christian Gläßel of Berlin’s Hertie School.
“We show that even the most extreme actions in authoritarian regimes are often driven by banal career anxiety,” says Adam Scharpf in a press release from the University of Copenhagen.
The book is based on unique career data from 15,000 officers in Argentina’s military, combined with detailed case studies from Nazi Germany, Stalin’s Soviet Union, Yahya Jammeh’s Gambia, and a wide range of other authoritarian systems.
Last year’s Nobel laureate in economics, James A. Robinson, has described the book as “an intellectual milestone”.
Two dangerous paths
The researchers identify a recurring pattern when officers’ careers stagnate. Those working inside the regime tend to pursue one of two strategies.
One option is a detour: joining repressive units in order to signal loyalty and usefulness to the ruler. The other is coercion: taking part in coups to improve future prospects under a new leader.
“It is not only the leader’s inner circle that determines a regime’s character and fate. Career anxiety among those in the middle and lower ranks can be enough to trigger both violence and regime collapse,” Scharpf explains.
The findings suggest that authoritarian stability often hinges on pressures far below the top leadership.
Meritocracy questioned
One of the book’s most controversial conclusions is that meritocracy does not protect against authoritarian excess.
Performance-based and professional systems, often seen as hallmarks of stable democracies, can intensify competition and push those who fall behind toward extreme choices.
“We tend to believe that bureaucratic professionalism is a safeguard against dictatorship. Our research shows, however, that it can be a driving force behind human rights abuses and illegal seizures of power,” says Scharpf.
Modern relevance
The authors argue that the same logic can apply beyond classic dictatorships. As democratic institutions come under strain, similar dynamics may emerge.
Scharpf points to US agencies such as ICE and the FBI, where staff reductions and new recruitment models may generate precisely the kind of career pressure that can lead to abuse of power.
“Wherever leaders try to consolidate power or seek committed allies to overturn a system, career logic is at work,” he says.
The book will be published by Oxford University Press on February 13, 2026.
Sources: University of Copenhagen
