Asger Risom
WMO Warns of Five Years of Intensifying Global Heat — With Catastrophic Potential
UN report signals continued record-breaking temperatures and a rising risk of extreme climate events through 2029.
There’s no cooling off in sight.
A new warning from the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) suggests that the next five years could push the planet further past key climate thresholds — with mounting consequences for both ecosystems and societies.
The WMO’s latest report points to a high likelihood of surpassing the 1.5°C global warming limit set by the Paris Agreement, a benchmark scientists have long warned could define the line between manageable disruption and irreversible damage.
Heating Up Beyond the Limits
According to the report, there is a 70% chance that global temperatures between 2025 and 2029 will exceed the 1.5°C increase over preindustrial levels — the ceiling aimed at preventing the worst impacts of climate change.
There is an 86% probability that at least one year will exceed the 1.5°C threshold — as already happened in 2024.
That year, the planet recorded an average temperature 1.55°C above 1850–1900 levels, making it the first full year to cross the Paris Agreement’s warning limit.
The WMO now estimates there’s an 80% chance that one of the next five years will be the hottest on record, likely surpassing 2024.
Temperature increases in the Arctic are expected to be especially severe — up to three and a half times higher than the global average.
More Extremes, Less Stability
The greater the warming, the more likely we are to face climate extremes.
The WMO notes an increased risk of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall, floods, and the accelerated melting of glaciers and polar ice.
Future climate patterns also suggest regional shifts. Wetter-than-average conditions are forecast for northern Europe, Siberia, Alaska, and the Sahel, while drier conditions are expected in the Amazon rainforest.
The report shows there’s no pause after experiencing the ten hottest years on record.
said Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General of the WMO.
As reported by 20 Minutos, the long-term outlook from 2015 to 2034 predicts an average warming of 1.44°C — a signal that the decade ahead may define not just climate policy, but survival strategies worldwide.