Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
There might be a reason, Putin seems to have a distorted image of what is going on in Ukraine.
When the Russian President Vladimir Putin claims that Russian victory in Ukraine is “inevitable” and that the cooling of the economy is part of a larger plan, he seems very optimistic about the “special military operation”, as the Kremlin has named the war.
Battlefield reports and Western analysts, however, paint a very different picture than what Putin claims – and there might be a reason for that other than simple propaganda.
It might be, that Putin is simply not being told the truth by his subordinates.
Mixed messages
The Financial Times reported on December 22 that two officials said Russian military and security agencies routinely provide Putin with battlefield briefings that exaggerate Ukrainian losses, stress Russia’s material advantages, and minimize setbacks.
According to the report, these updates are delivered by Russia’s chief of the general staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov.
The officials described the assessments as a “rosy picture” that has reinforced Putin’s belief that Russia can ultimately prevail. The FT added that Putin also meets with “confidants” who have warned him that the conflict is becoming a “growing drag” on the national economy.
Parallel concerns were outlined by The Washington Post on the same day. One Russian official told the newspaper that a banking or non-payments crisis is possible, adding that they do not “want to think about a continuation of the war or an escalation.”
Battlefield optimism
These accounts align with observations by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which has documented a longstanding culture of false reporting within the Russian military.
In its most recent update on the war in Ukraine, the ISW highlights that recent public briefings by senior officials, including Gerasimov and Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, have portrayed battlefield progress in terms analysts describe as exaggerated.
ISW noted that Gerasimov’s December 18 presentation to Putin contained even more expansive claims than Belousov’s briefing a day earlier, suggesting internal competition to deliver upbeat assessments.
Russian military bloggers have repeatedly criticized commanders for submitting “beautiful” but inaccurate reports that contribute to avoidable losses.
Such complaints point to systemic problems within the chain of command, where misleading information can travel upward and shape strategic decisions.
Economic reality bites
In contrast, officials overseeing Russia’s economy have sounded a more cautious tone. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov have publicly acknowledged mounting pressure on state finances.
They have noted that Russia has exhausted many of its “free resources” and that revenues from oil and gas now make up a shrinking share of the federal budget.
A Russian academic close to senior diplomats told The Washington Post that 2026 would be the “first difficult year” since the full-scale invasion began, though they argued economic strain was unlikely to trigger immediate political instability.
Sources: Financial Times, The Washington Post, Institute for the Study of War
