Nicolai Haugsted
Republicans are expanding their defensive map as dozens of supposedly safe House races demand attention.
Republicans have spent much of the midterm campaign sitting on something their Democratic opponents would dearly like to have: a gigantic pile of money.
Now they are starting to spend considerably more of it.
With just over a month until Americans vote, Republican groups are expanding their financial battlefield into dozens of House districts that previously required little or no outside assistance.
Some sit deep inside territory Donald Trump carried comfortably in 2024, according to Reuters.
Party leaders are not necessarily saying those seats are about to fall. Instead, internal polling has persuaded Republicans that assuming victory could be an expensive mistake.
Their solution is essentially political insurance — and they can afford plenty of it.
Since September 1, major Republican organizations and wealthy donors have begun spending in at least 39 congressional races where they had previously spent nothing during the current election cycle, according to a Reuters analysis.
Safe suddenly does not mean cheap
Republicans currently control the House by the narrowest of margins, making even a relatively small shift in seats potentially consequential.
GOP leaders have recently warned dozens of campaigns not to treat their races as guaranteed victories simply because public polling looks favorable or Trump carried their districts by double digits, according to Republican operatives cited by Reuters.
Internal data has apparently provided enough cause for concern to start moving money into places that normally would not be near the top of the shopping list.
Republican strategist Ron Bonjean summed up the change.
“Republicans are playing defense in some of the strongholds that they’re used to not having to worry about,” he said.
Economic pressure appears to be part of the problem.
Higher fuel, energy and fertilizer costs have landed particularly hard across agricultural areas where Republicans have traditionally performed strongly.
One Republican House campaign aide described conditions facing candidates in Iowa, Kansas and other Midwestern states as “dire” as diesel prices remain high.
Republicans can afford some insurance
Party officials insist the spending should not automatically be interpreted as panic.
Republicans possess a substantial financial advantage and say they are using it to make potentially competitive races less competitive before Democrats can capitalize.
Natalie Baldassarre, national press secretary for the Republican National Committee, described the strategy in considerably more bullish terms.
“Republicans are deploying our massive war chest to drive voters to the polls and supercharge our candidates,” she said.
“We’re not taking anything for granted, because, unlike Democrats, Republicans aren’t throwing in the towel on races we can win.”
Republican allies have reserved at least $888 million in advertising over the final stretch of the campaign, compared with at least $666 million on the Democratic side, according to AdImpact data cited by Reuters.
Money therefore gives GOP strategists the luxury of defending seats before trouble becomes an emergency.
Kevin Madden, a former adviser to Mitt Romney, said campaigns are behaving accordingly.
“We’re in this crucial period in the last 30 days where candidates have to really make a case, given how tough the headwinds are,” Madden said.
According to Madden, campaigns are operating as though they are trailing even in “red districts or traditionally safe” seats.
Wisconsin provides a useful example
Republican Rep. Bryan Steil probably would not have looked like an obvious rescue mission earlier in the cycle.
Trump carried his Wisconsin district by roughly 4.5 percentage points in 2024, while the Cook Political Report has classified the race as leaning Republican.
Conservative super PACs nevertheless poured $1.5 million into the contest this month.
No comparable outside investment had been made on Steil’s behalf earlier in the cycle, according to Reuters.
North Carolina offers an even more striking example.
Trump carried Republican Rep. Gregory Murphy’s district by 14 points in 2024.
Cook still classifies the seat as solidly Republican.
Outside Republican help has arrived anyway.
A conservative PAC spent more than $131,000 supporting Murphy this month after Democrats had already deployed more than $326,000 trying to defeat him.
Neither example means Republicans expect to lose those seats.
Their willingness to spend there does show how much wider the defensive map has become.
Texas has delivered a louder warning
Monica De La Cruz’s South Texas district illustrates why Republicans may prefer spending too early rather than too late.
Trump won the district by 18 percentage points in 2024.
Republican organizations have nevertheless poured approximately $2 million into text messages, mail and digital advertising supporting De La Cruz since September 5, according to Reuters.
Friday brought another reason for GOP strategists to keep the money flowing.
The Cook Political Report moved her race into its toss-up category as part of a broader set of 15 House rating changes, all of them moving toward Democrats.
Cook now rates 17 Republican-held seats and five Democratic-held seats as toss-ups. Its ratings favor Democrats in 208 districts and Republicans in 205, with the remainder sitting in the toss-up category.
Those ratings are assessments of the political landscape, not election results waiting to happen.
Still, they help explain why Republican money is suddenly appearing in places where little outside assistance had previously seemed necessary.
GOP money is flooding the airwaves
Republicans are not merely spending more across a few nervous districts.
Their financial advantage has become enormous during the final stretch.
Independent committees have spent more than $1.56 billion on federal elections overall, according to Reuters’ analysis, with approximately $496 million arriving since Labor Day alone.
Republican-leaning super PACs spent roughly $309.7 million during the three-week period cited by Reuters, compared with about $174.2 million supporting Democratic candidates.
One Republican operative working on Trump’s midterm strategy put the advantage rather less delicately.
“That’s the advantage of having a shit ton of money,” the operative said.
“We’re not going to let Democrats take free shots on goal.”
Trump’s political operation is helping provide much of that firepower.
No Going Back PAC, funded entirely by Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC, has been one of the major forces behind the spending surge, according to federal campaign finance records cited by Reuters.
Mike Marinella of the National Republican Congressional Committee believes that financial imbalance gives his party a substantial advantage.
“Republicans have air superiority. House Democrats are scrambling to catch up with the very limited resources they have,” Marinella said.
Democrats see the spending very differently
Democratic strategists hardly dispute that Republicans have more outside money available.
They dispute what the sudden deployment says about the election.
From their perspective, millions pouring into districts Trump previously won with ease represents evidence that Republicans are being forced to defend far more territory than they expected.
“Republicans are running scared, know they’ve lost the American people, and are trying one last hail mary to spend their way out of certain defeat,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Viet Shelton said.
“Certain defeat” is campaign rhetoric rather than something established by current polling or race ratings.
Republicans, for their part, describe exactly the same spending as a deliberate attempt to use their financial advantage before Democrats can make additional races competitive.
Both interpretations lead back to the same remarkable number.
At least 39 races that previously attracted no spending from the Republican groups examined by Reuters are now receiving money.
