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According to the intelligence, the Russian agricultural sector is short 62,000 tractors.
Russia’s agricultural industry is under growing pressure, with equipment shortages and falling profitability threatening future harvests, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service.
In an intelligence update released Thursday February 26, 2026, the agency says that systemic weaknesses and declining investment could undermine domestic food production in the coming years.
Technical decline
According to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, sales of farm machinery in Russia have dropped by about 25%. More than half of the country’s agricultural equipment is now considered worn out.
The agency reports that the pace of replacing tractors and harvesters is running at only a third of the level officials deem necessary. It estimates the sector is short of over 60,000 tractors and 34,000 combine harvesters.
“The current regulatory model effectively extracts resources from the industry through duties and taxes and does not encourage modernization. Combined with export restrictions, this undermines the profitability of production and the competitiveness of farmers,” the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine notes.
Economic pressure
The Ukrainian intelligence service says profitability in Russian crop production has declined sharply, from roughly 40% in 2020 to between 15% and 16% in 2025.
It attributes the downturn to elevated borrowing costs and limited state support, with subsidies accounting for just 1% to 2% of farmers’ income.
Risk of shortages
Ukrainian officials warn that insufficient investment in modern equipment may have broader consequences for Russia’s domestic market.
“In the medium term, this increases the risk of food shortages in the domestic market of Russia and price increases,” the FISU concludes.
The agency also links current difficulties to international sanctions and technological isolation. It further alleges misconduct by senior Russian figures, including claims that Dmitry Patrushev, a former agriculture minister and son of ex-Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev, was involved in a scheme to seize Ukrainian assets.
Kyiv has repeatedly accused Russian forces of exporting grain from occupied Ukrainian territories via seaports, calling the shipments illegal.
Sources: Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine statements
