Nicolai Haugsted
Trump dangles Belarus deal as cheaper alternative to Canadian supplies for American farmers.
American farmers could soon find themselves caught in the middle of another Donald Trump trade calculation – only this one involves fertilizer, Canada and a country that spent years under heavy US sanctions.
Washington is considering buying potash from Belarus as Trump searches for ways to bring down agricultural costs at home.
Canada will not necessarily lose its biggest customer. Trump said Tuesday that the United States intends to continue purchasing Canadian potash, but he also made clear that Belarus has something attractive to offer.
A lower price.
“Belarus has a lot of potash, and our farmers need good prices,” Trump told reporters, including Reuters, during a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“We’ll continue to go with Canada, but Belarus would like to sell it for a much lower price.”
Canada suddenly has competition
Potash may not generate the same headlines as oil, cars or steel, but it matters enormously to agriculture.
The potassium-rich mineral is a key ingredient in fertilizer, and American farmers rely heavily on imports to meet demand.
Canada dominates that supply relationship, providing the vast majority of potash imported into the United States.
Trump’s comments suggest he is not planning to sever that relationship. Instead, Belarus could become an additional supplier – and potentially give Washington another bargaining chip when discussing prices and trade with Ottawa.
Such leverage carries extra significance as relations between the two neighbors remain strained.
Trump’s administration has imposed a series of trade measures against Canadian products in recent months, including tariffs and restrictions targeting dairy, alcoholic beverages and vehicles. The White House has accused Canada of discriminatory trade practices, allegations Ottawa disputes.
Farmers are becoming harder to ignore
Price is central to Trump’s pitch.
American farmers have faced pressure from elevated fuel costs and expensive agricultural inputs, leaving the administration looking for ways to ease costs ahead of November’s midterm elections.
Potash sits directly in that equation.
Cheaper fertilizer can reduce production costs for crops including corn, soybeans and wheat, making Belarusian supplies potentially attractive regardless of the geopolitical baggage attached to them.
Trump first floated the prospect of purchasing Belarusian potash on Monday before expanding on the idea during Tuesday’s meeting with Zelenskyy.
His latest comments also stop short of announcing an agreement. No price, purchasing volume or timetable has been made public.
Belarus gets another opening to Washington
Minsk has another reason to pay close attention.
Belarus is one of the world’s major potash producers, but sanctions have restricted its access to Western markets following President Alexander Lukashenko’s crackdown on political opponents and his government’s support for Russia.
A US purchase would therefore carry significance well beyond fertilizer prices.
Washington has recently taken steps toward easing its historically hostile relationship with Minsk, including the lifting of sanctions referenced in the negotiations surrounding Belarus.
Opening another commercial route for potash could push that thaw further.
Any deal would also create an unusual geopolitical picture: Trump discussed buying a major Belarusian export while sitting alongside Zelenskyy, whose country continues to fight Russia, Belarus’s closest military and political ally.
Ottawa has plenty of other reasons to watch Washington closely.
Trump’s administration has escalated its broader trade dispute with Canada throughout the summer. Recent White House measures have targeted Canadian access to parts of the US market and federal procurement, with Trump arguing that American businesses have been treated unfairly.
Potash has now joined that much larger economic conversation.
