Asger Risom
Russia benefits from Iran’s support in Ukraine—but if Iran collapses, Moscow could lose a strategic ally, investments, and influence, while Western attention shifts away from Ukraine.
Russia’s Quiet Concern
At a recent Russia–Iran cooperation conference in Moscow, officials realized Iran faces its gravest threat in decades. While Israel and former President Trump demand Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” Russia grows increasingly uneasy—even as it remains largely powerless to help.
No Military Backup
Iran hoped Russia would step in, but Moscow refuses—unwilling to challenge Israel or the US. Instead, Russia pushes for diplomatic solutions and focuses on avoiding friction with Washington, especially around Ukraine.
Strategic and Economic Stakes
A collapse of Iran’s regime would strike Russia hard, not just in reputation but in strategic terms. It would be an even greater blow than losing influence in Syria, ending a decade of Russian intervention there.
Drone Ties, But No Defense Pact
Despite deepening military ties since 2022—including shared drone technology—Russia has no legal obligation to defend Iran and has delayed several weapons deliveries such as air defenses and fighter jets.
Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Risk
Rising oil prices and US distraction over the Iran crisis may temporarily benefit Russia. But experts warn that losing Iran threatens years of investment in gas, infrastructure, and regional influence.
Geopolitical Shift at Stake
Russia and Iran share little historical affinity—their alliance was born of mutual Western sanction pain. Should Iran fall, Russia risks losing its foothold in the Middle East to US-aligned powers, marking a serious geopolitical setback.