Daniel Wolfram
Over 7.7 million voters – more than 40% of the entire state – swarmed polling stations, with late surges in massive metro counties suddenly putting Democrats within striking distance of a historic win.
Early voting across Texas just shattered records.
According to preliminary data from the Secretary of State’s office, more than 7.7 million people cast ballots before in-person voting wrapped up on Friday.
That pushed turnout to 40.5 percent of registered voters, overtaking the modern midterm high set in 2018.
A massive surge
Early voting across Texas just shattered records. According to preliminary data from the Secretary of State’s office, more than 7.7 million people cast ballots before in-person voting wrapped up on Friday. That pushed turnout to 40.5 percent of registered voters, overtaking the modern midterm high set in 2018.
Voter rolls expanded as well. More than 19 million people are currently registered across the state, which is a 2.2 percent increase from the 2024 presidential race. County desks are still counting. With mail-in ballots trickling in, the overall participation rate will climb even higher.
“We’re not going to hit presidential levels, but this is definitely high turnout,” said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, to The Texas Tribune. “The question, though, that is still out there is, and this happens every time that we try to interpret early voting numbers: How many votes are actually still out there?”
Fierce ballot battles
High-profile statewide showdowns have driven the surge. In the race for the U.S. Senate, Austin Democrat James Talarico is locked in a tight clash with Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Further down the ticket, Republican Governor Greg Abbott is campaigning for a historic fourth term against Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa.
The surge caught many by surprise. At first, ballot returns trailed in the 2018 battle between Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz. Then came a frantic rush. Lines swelled dramatically across Harris, Dallas, and Tarrant counties during the closing days, completely altering the landscape.
Democratic strategist Matt Angle noted that these bustling metro areas hold higher concentrations of Black and Hispanic voters. Even so, he cautioned against premature celebration.
“That doesn’t mean Democrats are going to win, Republicans are going to lose,” he said. “That’s a big mistake to make those assumptions, but it shows that the structure of the electorate is such that Democrats have a chance to win.”
Voter rolls expanded as well. More than 19 million people are currently registered across the state, which is a 2.2 percent increase from the 2024 presidential race. County desks are still counting. With mail-in ballots trickling in, the overall participation rate will climb even higher.
