Kathrine Frich
Speculation about extraterrestrial life has rarely been far from public debate, and one Harvard researcher continues to push that conversation further.
Avi Loeb, already known for his controversial claims about interstellar object 3I/ATLAS, has now backed his arguments with a personal wager.
The scientist has long argued that the comet-like object could signal advanced technology rather than a natural phenomenon, putting him at odds with NASA’s assessments.
A high-stakes prediction
According to LADBible, Loeb has accepted a challenge from Dr. Michael Shermer, founder of The Skeptics Society, who offered a $1,000 bet asserting that humanity will not discover alien life by 31 December 2030.
Shermer’s position requires that no major scientific institution or government agency confirm alien visitation, material or biological, within that timeframe.
Loeb has taken the opposing stance, betting that such a discovery will be confirmed.
Both scientists have agreed that the loser will donate the money to The Galileo Project, Loeb’s research initiative exploring possible extraterrestrial technological artifacts.
terms of the wager
Loeb’s condition for victory is specific: by the end of 2030, at least two of three major institutions, NASA, the National Science Foundation and the American Astronomical Society, must affirm evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence, whether through UAPs, interstellar objects or biological life.
Shermer’s side wins if no such confirmation occurs.
The arrangement effectively turns a longstanding debate in the scientific community into a concrete, measurable contest.
Ongoing 3I/ATLAS debate
Loeb has repeatedly described 3I/ATLAS as unusual, arguing that it displays “qualities that we’ve never seen for comets.”
NASA, however, maintains that the object is a standard comet that “poses no threat to Earth” and will pass no closer than about 170 million miles.
Loeb has accused the agency of “pretending to be the adults in the room,” insisting that researchers should remain open to unconventional explanations.
He says the object’s closest pass on 19 December will provide the best opportunity to gather further data.
Broader scientific implications
Loeb has framed the wager as a call to intensify the scientific search for evidence of extraterrestrial technology.
He says he would rather “be an optimist” about the possibility of discovery, emphasising that systematic investigation is essential.
For now, the outcome of the bet — and the question it represents — remains years away.
Researchers worldwide will continue to study UAPs, interstellar visitors and other unexplained phenomena in the meantime.
Sources: LADBible
