Kathrine Frich
American intelligence agencies believe Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine has reached a point where victory is no longer possible.
Despite the Kremlin’s confident statements, officials and analysts cited by La Stampa say Moscow faces a combination of military, economic, and industrial pressures that have pushed its campaign toward exhaustion.
Exhausted reserves
US and European intelligence sources told the Italian newspaper that Russia is suffering from an acute shortage of trained soldiers.
Many reservists are being sent to the front after only minimal preparation, sometimes within two weeks of mobilization.
One captured soldier reportedly told interrogators he had spent only twelve days in the army before deployment.
Experts say such practices severely weaken the combat readiness of Russian units and place a heavy financial burden on the state, since reservists must be paid under contractual terms.
Economy under pressure
Sanctions, high inflation, and a seventeen percent interest rate from Russia’s central bank have undermined the stability of the country’s finances.
Official data show that GDP is growing by only 0.6 percent, compared with four percent the previous year.
The cost of the war, estimated at more than 150 billion dollars, is consuming much of the income from oil and gas exports.
Analysts interviewed by La Stampa warn that by 2026 or 2027, Russia will face serious consequences, both financial and political.
Early signs already point to the risk of default and widespread spending cuts across key sectors.
Heavy losses
Putin continues to insist that Russian forces can force Ukraine to surrender through pressure on the battlefield. Intelligence assessments, however, suggest the opposite.
Equipment and manpower losses far exceed any territorial gains, and in some regions tanks have been destroyed or immobilized by Ukrainian artillery and drones.
Even if Russian troops make small advances, experts say the current strategy cannot be sustained.
Resources are being depleted far faster than any tactical success can justify.
Ukraine’s growing strength
While Russia’s military tires, Ukraine is expanding its defense industry.
Kyiv has begun large-scale production of drones, with a planned output of up to three million units per year, and is preparing to introduce new Flamingo missiles capable of striking targets as far as three thousand kilometers away.
Specialists told La Stampa that these new systems will allow Ukraine to strike deeper inside Russian territory and will force the Kremlin to spend even more on defense.
The gradual modernization of Ukraine’s forces is making them increasingly independent and technologically advanced.
A war running out of time
US intelligence analysts conclude that Russia’s internal weaknesses now pose a greater threat to its war effort than Ukrainian resistance itself.
The Kremlin may still control the narrative at home, but on the battlefield, its options are narrowing.
The longer the war continues, the faster Russia’s resources are consumed.
Sources: La Stampa, LA.LV, foreign media reports
This article is made and published by Kathrine Frich, who may have used AI in the preparation
