Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
As younger Russians fall on the frontlines in Ukraine, an aging population and dwindling pool of fighting-age men may paradoxically help Vladimir Putin maintain control at home.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began on Feb. 24, 2022, putting the conflict on course to enter its fourth year in February 2025.
International and Ukrainian authorities report sustained civilian harm and heavy military losses on both sides; however, independently verified totals remain limited.
Intelligence suggests that Russian losses are astronomical. The Russian Army does not release any numbers about its casualties, and it’s difficult to independently verify the more than one million Russian troops killed or wounded, as claimed by Ukraine’s defense ministry.
One thing we do know is that the Russian army is losing troops at a staggering pace — and paradoxically, that could be the very thing that saves President Vladimir Putin from being overthrown.
Teens sent to die
In July, BBC Russia reported that even men as young as 18 years old are being sent to fight in Ukraine. Many of them were contract soldiers, not conscripts.
BBC Russia’s investigation found that at least 2,800 Russian men aged 18–20 have lost their lives in Ukraine.
Several reports have shown that the Russian educational system is being transformed into a propaganda machine, preparing young Russians for war.
Starting Sept. 1, 2024, Russian high schools rolled out “Fundamentals of Security and Homeland Defense,” a course that includes basic military training such as firearms familiarization and drone operation.
Russia’s draft age is 18–30, following a law that took effect on Jan. 1, 2024, but looking at the ages of the troops fighting in Ukraine, conscripts are not the only ones joining the invasion.
The average age is rising
In 2024, the independent outlet Verstka reported that the proportion of recruits in the Russian army aged over 45 is growing.
In March 2025, The Red Line Podcast reported that the average age of Russian troops deployed in Ukraine was on the rise — from around 20 at the beginning of the war to 36 years now.
Other sources, such as The Moscow Times, indicate that the average age of new contract soldiers has risen, including many in their late 40s and 50s. However, reliable figures for an army-wide average remain unavailable.
The reason for this is most likely an increase in contract soldiers seeking substantial enlistment bonuses.
But the age of Russian recruits is not the only thing that’s rising.
An aging population
According to Worldometer, the median age of the Russian population in 2025 is 40.3.
That’s up nearly four years compared to 2005 (36.4) and up 1.2 years since the beginning of the war (39.1 in 2022).
Add to that a declining fertility rate, and the Russian population overall is growing older — a demographic crisis putting massive strain on Russian society.
It’s also something that could make Putin feel safer about the risk of a new Russian revolution.
Who would pick up the pitchforks?
According to the Russian Empire Census of 1897, the median age in Russia before the Revolution of 1917 was 21.16 years.
It should be noted that the average life expectancy in Russia at the time was only 34 years, but the population overall was considerably younger than today.
As hundreds of thousands of young men are being sent to Ukraine to fight and possibly die or become disabled, the number of young men ready to pick up weapons and fight against the regime decreases — and historically, men have been the primary combatants in revolutions.
Women have also played pivotal roles throughout history, mainly as medics and in logistics, though some have also taken up arms and fought.
Times have changed, though. Given the increasing number of professional female soldiers around the world, women could, of course, launch a revolution as well.
But the number of combat-trained women in Russia remains remarkably low.
Less than 1 in 20
As of May 2020, less than 5% of active Russian forces were female — that’s fewer than 1 in 20.
In addition, women in the Russian army are often reported to be used in auxiliary roles due to societal norms.
Unrest grows, but fighters are scarce
Independent pollster Levada has consistently found high stated support for the armed forces’ actions, while two-thirds of respondents now favor peace talks.
In August 2025, 27% wanted to keep fighting.
But repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure are beginning to take their toll on the population, and reports of unrest and mass theft in remote areas of Russia are emerging according to Express.
However, the citizens of St. Petersburg and Moscow are not feeling the full force of the war, making it unlikely that a rebellion will arise.
One argument is that if a rebellion were to ignite, who would pick up the weapons when most of the combat-trained men are fighting in Ukraine?
Or as Latvian military officer, Janis Slaidiņš said in an episode of the TV24 program Current Affairs About War last month:
“Who will make a revolution—old women?”
Sources: Britannica; Kremlin (conscription law); El País; Meduza; BBC Russian (via Euromaidan Press / Babel); The Moscow Times; DataReportal (UN); CSIS; Levada Center; AP; Atlantic Council
This article is made and published by Jens Asbjørn Bogen, who may have used AI in the preparation
