Analysts say Putin’s ally may be losing interest as military supplies shrink

Now Ukrainian intelligence officials say that flow has slowed to a trickle, raising questions about Pyongyang’s willingness, or ability, to keep Russia’s war machine supplied.

The shift follows months of warnings that North Korea’s stockpiles were nearing exhaustion.

Dwindling support

According to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, HUR, North Korea has sharply reduced the number of artillery shells it sends to Russia.

Vadym Skibitsky, the agency’s deputy chief, said Pyongyang delivered millions of rounds in 2024, helping Moscow sustain its firepower.

This year, however, Ukrainian officials say only outdated models have been transferred.

Analysts argue that the slowdown reflects depleted ammunition reserves inside North Korea.

Shrinking stockpiles

Military assessments indicate that of the 6.5 million shells delivered since 2023, most have already been fired by Russian forces.

Around half of those shipments were old enough to require refurbishment at Russian facilities before use.

No deliveries were recorded in September, and only a small quantity arrived in October, Ukrainian officials report.

The reduced flow contrasts sharply with the pace seen earlier in the war.

Shifting priorities

Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service estimates that North Korea has at times supplied up to 35–50 percent of the ammunition used daily by Russian units.

But Pyongyang has reportedly increased drone manufacturing, diverting resources away from shell production.

This shift, analysts say, further erodes its remaining ammunition reserves.
For Moscow, the slowdown comes as its battlefield consumption remains high.

Pressure on Russia

The reduced supply adds another challenge for Russia, already facing high casualty rates and rapid equipment losses.

Ukrainian officials argue that any interruption in Pyongyang’s support could eventually weaken Russia’s ability to sustain heavy bombardments.

While neither Russia nor North Korea has commented publicly on the reported slowdown, Kyiv says the trend is now visible across several months of data.

For Ukraine, the development could mark one of the first significant constraints on Moscow’s external ammunition pipeline.

Source: Ukrainska Pravda, WP

This article is made and published by Kathrine Frich, who may have used AI in the preparation