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He finds it staggering, that NATO does not seem better prepared after what happened a few years ago.
He finds it staggering, that NATO does not seem better prepared after what happened a few years ago.
NATO has learned nothing
In an article in The Spectator, former NATO-officer, Dr. Maurizia Geri, expresses concern that NATO does not seem to have learned anything from the energy crisis that happened just a few years ago.
Iran could do a “Russia”
Energy blackmail has been a part of Russian pressure politics for years, and now Iran is threatening to close off the Hormuz Strait – a naval passage vital to the global energy flow.
Not a small thing
According to Dr. Geri, a third of the World’s oil and a fifth of the World’s liquefied natural gas passes throug the Hormuz strait, so it would basically choke the Western energy supply, if it happened.
The markets are already twitching, but that’s not the worrying part, according to Dr. Geri.
Silence from NATO
Since the conflict between Israel and Iran escalated a week ago, nothing has been heard from NATO as a collective. No calls for de-escelation, nothing.
And the upcoming NATO-summit next week seems to be more focused on budgets and Russia than the situation in the Middle East.
The forgotten wake-up call
When Russia weaponized energy a couple of years ago, Europe was hit hard. Cyberattacks and sabotage ended up costing Europ hundreds of billions of Pounds, Euros, Dollars, whatever currency you prefer.
But NATO’s energy strategy is still lacking hardened defences to withstand future energy attacks.
Doubt is enough
Dr. Geri believes that Iran simply has to plant doubt for the markets to react negatively, making oil prices spike.
This would have the added effect of Russia earning billions in increased revenue from exporting oil and gas, prolonging the war in Ukraine.
An Energy Article 5
Dr. Geri advocates for a legislative resolution: An Energy Article 5.
Like NATO’s Article 5 triggering a collective response from all NATO members, an Energy Article 5 would do the same, if a members energy suplly is in any way disrubted by energy blackmail.
Private investors to the rescue?
Dr. Geri lists a number of possible solutions, including getting private investors to pay for a huge chunk of what it would cost to bolster the Western energy infrastructure.
But most of all, he fears that any dragging of feet, as the next crisis might soon be upon us.
Iran could start a trend
And if Iran actually do block the Hormuz Strait, it could be a future blueprint for every enemy of the West on how to crumple numerous nations with a single action.
A dangerous blueprint for rogue regimes to have.