Kathrine Frich
Over the past several months, NATO countries have reported a rise in unidentified drones entering their airspace.
From the Baltic states to Poland and Romania, military radar has tracked dozens of unmarked aircraft suspected of being Russian reconnaissance operations.
While no attacks have taken place, these incursions have exposed just how fragile European security has become.
Now, a senior German commander warns that the risk of a direct clash with Russia may be closer than many believe.
Early warning
General Alexander Sollfrank, head of the Bundeswehr’s Operational Command, told Reuters that Moscow’s military recovery is advancing faster than Western analysts expected.
“Looking at Russia’s current capabilities and combat power, the Kremlin could launch a small attack on NATO territory even tomorrow,” he said.
He explained that any such operation would likely be limited in scale and duration.
“Nothing major, as Russia is too deeply involved in Ukraine to afford anything more,” Sollfrank added.
He also stressed that there is no intelligence suggesting Russia is preparing an immediate strike against NATO members.
Russia’s rearmament drive
Sollfrank warned that Russia’s rearmament program is accelerating at a pace that could reshape Europe’s balance of power.
“By 2030, Russia intends to double its stockpiles of missiles and ammunition, including artillery, compared to 2022 levels,” he said.
If that expansion continues, the general believes Russia could be capable of launching a full-scale offensive against NATO by 2029.
His remarks follow multiple reports that Russia’s defense industry has shifted to round-the-clock production of ammunition, tanks, and drones.
Conditions for conflict
Sollfrank identified three main factors that would determine whether President Vladimir Putin might choose to attack: the strength of Russia’s armed forces, their combat experience, and the political climate within the Kremlin.
“These three factors lead me to the conclusion that a Russian attack is within the realm of possibility,” he said.
“Whether it happens depends largely on our own behavior.”
Western governments have increasingly echoed similar concerns, warning that Russia’s long-term strategy aims to test NATO’s unity and exploit weaknesses in European defense planning.
Sources: Super Express, Reuters, Bundeswehr Operational Command, PAP, NATO defense reports
This article is made and published by Kathrine Frich, who may have used AI in the preparation
