Kathrine Frich
Western armies are not marching on Moscow. Still, the fear inside the Kremlin is surprisingly real.
Political power often relies on the language of extreme existential threat.
When leaders tell their citizens that the survival of the nation is at stake, the rules of normal governance quickly disappear.
Raising the stakes
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly claimed that losing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine could cause Russia to cease to exist.
Speaking at the Valdai Club conference, he argued that Western calls for a “strategic defeat of Russia” directly threaten his country’s right to exist, accordng to Ziare.
That phrase has become a powerful political tool. By framing the conflict as a fight for survival, Moscow justifies massive sacrifices at home. Russia is raising its defense spending by 27 percent next year, diverting huge resources away from civilian needs.
At the same time, this narrative serves a clear purpose abroad. It signals to European nations that supporting Ukraine could trigger a direct, nuclear confrontation.
Power and paranoia
Yet a battlefield defeat would not actually wipe Russia off the map. If Russian troops retreated to their recognized borders, the country would simply return to its 2013 reality.
Western armies are not marching on Moscow. Still, the fear inside the Kremlin is surprisingly real.
Many top officials in Moscow are former KGB officers who watched the Soviet Union suddenly collapse around them. They genuinely worry that the Russian Federation could share the same fate.
Putin also views history through an imperial lens. In his eyes, Ukraine is not a legitimate sovereign state, and Russia must remain a dominant global power to survive.
The path forward
For the Kremlin, being a great power is non-negotiable. Putin believes that losing this influence would reduce his nation to a mere historical curiosity.
He will only abandon his current strategy if he becomes convinced that continuing the war poses a direct threat to his personal power. Until then, the conflict will be decided by force on the ground.
