Kathrine Frich
The war has hit closer to home than the Kremlin anticipated.
The battlefield moves slowly, but behind the Kremlin walls, the calculations are moving fast.
A leading Western historian has examined the political reality facing the Russian leadership, and he sees a leader weighing an enormous risk.
A careful manipulator
Vladimir Putin has long shaped public opinion to cement his role as the father of the modern Russian nation. During parliamentary elections, he takes no chances, banning opposition parties from the ballot and leaning heavily on historical imagery.
His party, United Russia, often secures massive majorities. Still, the electoral performance matters deeply to the Kremlin.
Robert Service, an emeritus professor of Russian history at Oxford University, notes that the Kremlin leader relies on these orchestrated victories. Putin needs to show the public that Russians freely vote for his vision of the country, according to the Ziare.
While Putin’s popularity numbers remain high in state polls, the reality on the ground is shifting.
The limits of control
Independent researchers report a growing desire among citizens for serious peace negotiations. The grinding conflict is now in its fifth year, and war fatigue is settling over the country.
The war has hit closer to home than the Kremlin anticipated. Drones and missiles have reached Moscow, targeting infrastructure like major oil refineries even as voters went to the polls.
Service points out that Putin never expected a protracted war. When troops crossed the border in 2022, they carried parade uniforms for what they believed would be a rapid victory in Kyiv.
Instead, the Ukrainian public united fiercely around national defence. “He and the Ukrainian people learned the hard way that Putin treated the demand for peace negotiations as a sign of weakness,” the Oxford professor explained.
The gamble of his life
The Russian military faces a persistent problem. Casualties are high, and the high command constantly needs fresh troops to sustain the frontline effort.
The Kremlin initially offered generous financial incentives for volunteers, drawing heavily from poorer rural areas. But that pool of willing recruits is shrinking.
Now, Putin faces the gamble of his life. He needs more men, but ordering a new wave of military mobilisation risks igniting public protests in major cities like Moscow.
Despite his confident public persona, Service characterises the Russian president as a nervous leader. The choice of whether to force another draft remains the biggest open question for his regime.
Sources: Ziare, Telegraph
