Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Estimates put the Russian casualties at nearly 1.5 million killed and wounded.
Even with a steady stream of recruits entering the battlefield, Russian military strength is sliding backwards. Casualties simply outpace recruitment.
Every single day, roughly 1,000 new fighters join the Russian army, according to The Guardian. Yet over the last two months, those numbers have fallen well short of replacing the dead and wounded.
The imbalance has created a sharp deficit for commanders on the ground. Western officials cited by The Guardian estimate that Moscow is slipping further behind every single month.
“We estimate that the gap between the number of people Russia is losing to casualties and the number they’re being able to recruit is around 6,000 a month at the moment,” one western official told The Guardian.
Unbelievable casualty numbers
The Kremlin does not disclose the Russian losses, making it difficult to find out exactly how many troops Putin has lost in the war, now in its fifth year.
Estimates from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine put the Russian losses at nearly 1.5 million killed and wounded troops as of August 28.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies released a report in January 2026 putting the estimated Russian casualties at the time at 1.2 million killed and wounded.
Targeting the grid
To offset these mounting losses, Russian leadership has shifted focus away from pure ground combat. Instead, commanders are targeting Ukrainian cities and power systems to pressure the population.
Since early July, forces have launched more than 360 missiles across Ukraine. Moscow is exploiting Kyiv’s limited supply of ballistic missile interceptors to strike energy infrastructure before winter.
“Putin’s response to this has been to escalate himself and to target civilian infrastructure and civilians in Ukraine, firing over 360 missiles since early July and exploiting Kyiv’s shortage of defence against ballistic missiles. It’s clear that Moscow intends to try and break Ukrainian morale by destroying its energy infrastructure this winter,” the western official noted.
This strategic pivot comes because alternative solutions carry massive political risks. Ordering a fresh nationwide draft could cause severe economic damage and spark anger inside Russia.
High political cost
When the Kremlin called up troops in autumn 2022, nearly one million citizens fled the country. Most were educated professionals. Fewer than half returned.
Even if another mass mobilization were declared today, the military might struggle to absorb it. Units lack enough trained officers and equipment to handle hundreds of thousands of new recruits.
So Moscow appears set on a long war of attrition to exhaust Kyiv and test Western patience. Meanwhile, state officials are cutting university humanities courses while expanding perks for military recruits.
