Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Especially Operation Vivaldi has made a difference.
After months of aggressive pushes along the eastern front, Moscow’s momentum appears to have ground to a complete halt – and in some parts of the front line, the Russian push has even been put into reverse.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian troops have lost nearly 300 square kilometers of territory since March, leaving Putin’s forces with a net loss of 293 square kilometers.
Even when counting temporary Russian infiltration zones, the Kremlin expanded its overall footprint by barely 174 square kilometers since spring.
Disastrous September
The Washington-based think tank reported that territorial gains slowed dramatically before turning negative, when Ukraine turned the tide through targeted counterattacks.
September proved particularly disastrous for Moscow. Ukrainian defense forces pushed back hard across multiple vital sectors to reclaim lost ground.
During September, Russian units seized roughly 175 square kilometers but surrendered over 256 square kilometers. That left Moscow with a net loss of 80 square kilometers.
When accounting for contested infiltration areas, Ukraine gained a net advantage of more than 175 square kilometers in a single month.
Hidden counteroffensive succeeds
A quiet Ukrainian operation called Operation Vivaldi drove much of this sudden turnaround. Ukrainian commanders intentionally kept the mission hidden for months while systematically clearing enemy positions around the town of Lyman.
The push reclaimed at least 147 square kilometers near Lyman. More importantly, it wiped out a dangerous Russian pocket threatening the city of Sloviansk.
These tactical defeats coincide with a staggering human toll. Ukraine’s General Staff reported 46,320 Russian casualties in September alone. That marks the highest monthly total of the year and the third straight month above 40,000.
The sustained physical and logistical pressure is breaking morale inside frontline units. Leaked internal documents from Russia’s 127th Motor Rifle Division revealed widespread unauthorized absences, rising suicide rates, and a breakdown of troop discipline across the rank and file.
