Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Earlier this month, Putin claimed that Russian forces advanced across the frontline.
Since early September, Russian forces have surrendered more territory than they managed to capture.
A new assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) revealed a net loss of 241 square kilometres across the front.
It marks a striking turnaround after months of brutal, grinding advances.
Insignificant Russian gains
According to the ISW, overall progress on the ground has slowed to an absolute crawl. Throughout 2026, Russian units gained an average of only 0.25 square kilometres per day across the entire front line. That tiny footprint shows how hard advancing has become.
Ukrainian forces have stepped into the opening with targeted counterattacks. During Operation Vivaldi on the Lyman axis, defending soldiers took back more than 270 square kilometres of key ground. That quick sweep stopped Russian troops from menacing the fortified towns of Donetsk.
The underground strike
Clever tactics helped drive that sudden momentum. Near Kupiansk, fighters from the National Guard’s 2nd Khartiia Corps slipped more than 15 kilometres through underground pipes and tunnels. They emerged directly behind enemy lines during Operation VELES, catching Russian troops completely off guard.
At the same time, the human toll on Russian forces continues to surge. According to Ukrainian estimates cited by ISW, Moscow lost nearly 37,000 soldiers in the first three weeks of October alone. That figure already eclipses the 31,270 casualties recorded across the entire month in 2025.
Recruitment is failing to keep up with the carnage. War analysts warn that as frontline casualties mount, Russian commanders may soon demand another sweeping mobilization of reservists to plug the gaps.
The broader picture reveals an army burning through troops without winning ground to show for it. Maintaining that kind of burn rate is nearly impossible. And with Ukraine seizing the initiative, Moscow is running out of easy answers.
Exposes Putin’s false claims
At the Valdai Discussion Club on October 1, Vladimir Putin claimed that the strategic initiative had shifted entirely to Russian forces and that his military was advancing across major axes.
In numbers, he claimed that Russia captured 1,301 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory in September alone.
A couple of weeks later, on October 16, Putin further asserted in a televised briefing alongside Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov that Russian troops had seized roughly 6,500 square kilometres across Ukraine since the start of 2026 and continued advancing across the front.
