Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Do you think he knows he is not telling the truth, or is the Russian military command simply oblivious to the realities on the ground?
On May 14, the Russian state-owned news agency TASS cited Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu as saying that Russian forces are “confidently advancing along the entire line of combat contact” in Ukraine.
He also said that Russia will continue to pursue diplomatic and political methods of resolving the conflict, blaming Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the fact that an agreement has not yet been reached.
None of these remarks bring anything new to the table, considering the statements from the Kremlin throughout the war. However, if we take a look at the first claim, battlefield data tells a very different story from Shoigu’s account.
Advances turn negative
In early May, the Institute for the Study of War reported that Russian territorial gains in Ukraine have been in steep decline in 2026.
In January, Putin’s forces reportedly advanced and took control of 318 km², but in February those advances had plummeted to just under 123 km².
March produced Russian advances of only 23 km², and April really turned the tables as Ukraine managed to retake approximately 116 km² from Russian forces.
The tide has turned
A CNN report published on May 14 cited Ukrainian officers as saying that Ukraine can sense a shift in morale among Russian forces.
“They are exhausted,” officer Kyrylo Bondarenko told the outlet.
Ukraine may be short on manpower to defend the country against the Russian invasion, but Putin is also starting to feel the consequences of more than four years of war.
Monthly losses of 35,000+
So far, 2026 has been a very bloody year for the Russian armed forces.
According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, March resulted in 35,351 Russian casualties and April in 35,203 Russian casualties.
In February, Western officials estimated that Russia had been losing 40,000 soldiers per month since November.
At this pace, Russia will have lost 1% of its entire population before autumn.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War, CNN, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence, TASS
