Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
According to the anonymous general, the Kremlin is counting on Ukraine to be torn apart by a domestic political crisis.
Wars are often won or lost on information, and what happens behind closed doors can look very different from the public narrative.
While leaders project total confidence, their own teams often paint a contrasting picture.
A rare look inside Moscow shows that the gap between expectations and reality is widening.
A bold deadline
According to a July 9 update on the war in Ukraine from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian commanders told President Vladimir Putin that their forces will capture the Donbas by the end of 2026.
This detail came from an anonymous active-duty Russian general in an interview with journalist Dmitry Kolezev.
That timeline echoes other findings. Reuters recently cited three Kremlin-linked sources who said Putin firmly believes a breakthrough is coming, leading him to reject ceasefire talks.
But the insider claims the plan is resting on shaky ground. According to Meduza, the general says that to achieve that goal, Russia must recruit up to 60,000 new soldiers every single month just to replace its heavy casualties.
The general called this target completely unrealistic. Recruitment numbers are falling, and the military already faces severe manpower shortages.
Important note: As the general is completely anonymous, there is debate about how credible his information is.
The attrition trap
Despite these shortages, the Kremlin is banking on a war of attrition. The strategy is simple: Russia hopes to keep advancing slowly until Ukraine runs out of steam and Western allies lose interest.
Moscow is also waiting for a political crisis to shake Ukraine. To help things along, the Kremlin is inflating its success on the battlefield to scare the West into forcing a Ukrainian surrender.
Recent public boasts about taking specific towns are part of this psychological game. According to the general, the goal is to make a Russian victory look inevitable to leaders in Washington and Europe.
To keep the push going, Moscow is prioritizing the Donbas over everything else. That means leaving the skies over occupied Ukraine totally unprotected.
A real war
To fix manpower shortages, the government might force more citizens to fight. ISW notes that Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov recently stated that the “special military operation” has turned into a “real war.”
Insiders say this language is meant to prepare the public for mobilization.
Putin laid the groundwork in November 2025 by signing a law allowing the deployment of reservists without a formal mobilization announcement.
The Institute for the Study of War noted that this allows for a quiet, rolling draft. Still, a massive public call-up remains a dangerous political gamble.
Experts from ISW assess that the reports prove Putin is becoming increasingly divorced from reality. He may soon face a tough choice between his own political safety and a war he refuses to end.
