Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
Russia’s Su-34 fleet has been losing jets not in dogfights, but in their own hangars.
Ukraine’s naval forces have steadily pushed what began as a coastal defense weapon into new operational territory, reaching targets hundreds of kilometers from any shoreline. The latest extension carried a Long Neptune cruise missile deep into Russia’s interior, toward an airfield that has fueled Moscow’s glide-bomb campaign against Ukrainian cities.
On Thursday, the Ukrainian Navy reported destroying two Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers at Marinovka airfield in Volgograd Oblast, near the settlement of Oktyabrsky. The aircraft belonged to Russia’s 11th Mixed Aviation Regiment, part of the 4th Mixed Aviation Division.
The airfield lies roughly 400 kilometers from Ukrainian-controlled territory, and according to the pro-Ukrainian monitoring channel Exilenova+ the strike is “most likely” the longest Ukrainian Neptune-strike on Russian territory, as it was reportedly launched 600 km from the target airbase.
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Each Su-34 carries an export value of about $50 million, Ukraine’s General Staff said in a statement, describing the type as one of the main platforms Russia uses to drop guided aerial bombs on Ukrainian cities, defense positions, and frontline areas.
A fleet that cannot be replaced quickly
Russia’s Aerospace Forces operated approximately 140 Su-34s of various modifications as of October 22, according to Ukrinform, citing Ukrainian military data. The Kyiv Independent, which could not independently verify the Navy’s claim, noted that Russia produces only 14 to 18 of the aircraft each year.
The strike comes roughly two weeks after an October 15 Neptune attack on Borisoglebsk airfield in Voronezh region, which the Kyiv Independent reported destroyed four Su-34M jets and damaged two others. Together, the two operations put eight Su-34s on the account of the Long Neptune program within a fortnight.
Zelensky pivots to interceptors
President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the Marinovka strike in his evening address, saying Ukrainian forces “carried out two missile strikes, destroying two Russian Su-34s and hitting an Iskander launcher,” according to Ukrainska Pravda.
In the same address, Zelensky warned that intelligence pointed to a wave of new Russian ballistic attacks. “We now have intel about the Russians preparing new ballistic missile attacks. We need the capabilities to shoot down all this Russian evil,” he said. According to the Kyiv Post, Zelensky called on partners to provide “interceptor packages, primarily for Patriots,” describing them as Ukraine’s most critical shortage heading into winter.
The ballistic warning landed on a day a Russian jet-powered drone struck the Dnipro railway station, killing at least 14 people.
