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One region saw overall utility bills jump by as much as 22%
Russia’s annual inflation climbed to 7.1% in the week of September 29 to October 5, Rosstat figures carried by state wire TASS show, overshooting both the Bank of Russia’s 6-7% forecast range for the year and the Economic Development Ministry’s 6.8% projection.
The jump came from a single trigger. Housing and utility bills rose by a national average of 9.9% on October 1, less than two weeks after Russia’s State Duma elections closed on September 20.
The Economy Ministry estimated the hikes alone added 0.75 percentage points to that week’s inflation reading.
Residential gas rates climbed 9.6% and electricity 11.3%. The sharpest regional spike was 22% in Stavropol Krai, a region in southern Russia.
A tariff written a year in advance
Russia’s cabinet set the double increase in a government order a year earlier: a token 1.7% rise in January tied to a VAT change, followed by the far bigger October step.
The last time rates jumped twice in one calendar year was 2022, as Euronews reports, the year of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Russian economist and investment manager Yevgeny Kogan told The Moscow Times the increases now outrun any inflation-adjustment logic: “This can no longer be called mere indexation, since the inflation forecast is much lower.”
The Bank of Russia had warned in advance that the October tariff round would contribute noticeably to faster annual inflation.
On September 11 the regulator kept its key rate at 14.00% and projected inflation would only return to its 4% target in 2027.
2027 bill already revised up
Four days after the Duma vote closed, the Economic Development Ministry revised its 2027 utility forecast upward to 11% from a previously planned 8.7%, with further rises of 8.6% in 2028 and 7.6% in 2029.
The ministry attributed the revisions to rising inflation and larger projected increases in gas and electricity rates.
The revision landed as the government was finalizing a 2027 budget in which defense and security claim 44% of all spending.
A Carnegie Endowment analysis published October 2 writes that for every ruble allocated to social policy, health, and education, “double that amount is earmarked for the army, the police, and the security services,” with the state “passing on the costs to those who can bear them and who can’t complain.”
Federal spending on housing and utilities is set to fall from 1.83 trillion rubles in 2027 to 1.23 trillion by 2029.
