Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
An embarrasingly scaled back Victory Day parade on May 9 is probably part of the reason for the timing.
On May 12, just days after the scaled-back Russian Victory Day celebrations, Russian President Vladimir Putin praised the test of a massive new ballistic missile.
The weapon is known as the RS-28 Sarmat, but is commonly nicknamed “Satan-2”.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Putin claims this super-heavy weapon will be ready for active combat duty by the end of 2026. Putin also took time to highlight several other nuclear-capable weapons currently in development.
The list includes underwater drones, intermediate-range missiles, and advanced cruise missiles. A recent defense assessment report points out that Russian officials have promised the Sarmat’s deployment multiple times.
But Putin probably has another reason for highlighting the Russian missile right now.
Hiding behind the arsenal
ISW believes the Russian leader is trying to distract the public from a severe embarrassment at home.
Russia’s traditional Victory Day parade in Moscow was noticeably scaled down this year.
Moscow had also asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for a temporary ceasefire just to hold the parade safely. Although no official proposal was sent to Kyiv, Zelenskyy said on May 4.
The fact that the Kremlin needed to ask for safety in its own capital exposed a glaring vulnerability. The new missile tests help cover up the harsh reality that Ukraine essentially controlled Moscow’s biggest holiday.
Losing ground fast
ISW suggests the flashy military announcements are also clearly meant to pull public attention away from the actual front lines. The much-anticipated Russian offensive for the spring and summer of 2026 has stalled completely.
Defense experts report that the Russian army suffered a net loss of occupied territory in April. This marks a major shift in momentum in the conflict.
Manpower is becoming a serious problem. By January 2026, the Russian military was losing active soldiers much faster than it could recruit replacements.
Turning the tide
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are pushing back with steady counterattacks. They started retaking significant parts of Kupyansk late last year.
Over the recent winter and spring months, Ukraine liberated more than 400 square kilometers in the southern regions. Late April saw even more local settlements liberated.
This forces Russian commanders to make incredibly difficult choices. They now have to dedicate scarce troops to defending their own static lines instead of pushing forward.
That defensive posture shatters the official narrative that Russian forces are constantly advancing.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War
