Jens Asbjørn Bøgen
What a way to divert attention from your own incompetence …
Imagine this: You started a war, counting on a swift 10-day victory.
That was more than four years ago. Your casualties are inching close to one percent of your nation’s entire population, your own territory is being pummeled by hundreds of long-range strikes, your economy is in tatters, and there is increasing dissatisfaction with you as head of state.
That is essentially a summary of the situation for Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2026.
So how do you distract from the mounting failures?
Unannounced show of force
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced a major surprise exercise designed to test the readiness of its strategic forces. Running from May 19 to May 21, these drills focus on deploying massive weapons systems under the threat of aggression.
But according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the timing of the drills is worth noting.
Typically, Moscow conducts these large air, land, and sea operations during the autumn months. Moving the timeline up to May represents a significant shift. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War suggested the surprise change is intended to influence Western political decisions.
According to official statements, several military units will launch ballistic and cruise missiles across domestic test ranges. To maximize the impact, the drills involve long-range aviation commands alongside major naval assets. Both the Northern and Pacific fleets are currently participating.
The scale of the mobilization is immense. More than 64,000 personnel are taking part in the exercises. Military officials reported that troops are using over 7,800 pieces of heavy equipment, including 200 missile launchers and 140 aircraft.
Escalating regional tensions
ISW notes that the Russian naval forces are operating extensively beneath the waves. According to official reports, 13 submarines are currently tracking coordinates.
The BBC’s Russian Service also noted that the drills likely involve the majority of the nation’s active missile launchers.
The operations are not confined to Russian borders. The military is also testing joint capabilities alongside forces in Belarus, where Moscow recently deployed a portion of its arsenal. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense confirmed that collaborative exercises began just one day before the main launch.
Alongside the hardware deployments, political officials are amplifying their warnings to the West. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated that a direct clash with NATO is becoming increasingly likely. He explicitly accused Western countries of provoking dangerous nuclear tensions.
Ryabkov added that military planners are closely monitoring the expansion of Western weapons systems. Even so, the Kremlin claims that international leaders have failed to establish the right conditions for peace talks.
Sources: BBC, Russian Ministry of Defense, Belarusian Ministry of Defense, Institute for the Study of War
