Christine Drews Sieger
Kaja Kallas warns that mounting Russian losses and the pressure of mobilization could push the Kremlin toward a broader and more dangerous escalation of the war.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told, that the risk of Russia expanding the war into a broader confrontation could eventually become Russia’s next step, The Wall Street Journal reports.
The war has come at a high cost, and she argues that a new Russian mobilization could push the Kremlin toward escalation.
“Of course, no one can see what is going on inside (Vladimir) Putin’s head. But this could be his calculation for moving forward and changing the linear nature of the war,” Kallas said.
Heavy Russian military losses
We have previously reported that around 352,000 Russian soldiers were recorded dead between April 2022 and October 2025. Far from all of them have been identified.
In addition, around 6,000 North Korean soldiers who fought for Russia have also died during the war.
However, newer figures from Western intelligence services show that Russia is losing around 35,000 soldiers every month — an extraordinarily high number, The Wall Street Journal reports.
Risk of escalation
Kallas also argues that if Russia does not expand the war, but only carries out a mobilization directed at Ukraine, it would appear to be a sign of weakness:
“If you mobilize only for this war (with Ukraine – TMT), you send the signal that you are actually not winning this war. Therefore, there comes a point where escalation becomes necessary to justify mobilization. And this is a very dangerous moment,” Kallas said.
There are, however, questions about whether Russia will once again call up reservists. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War point out that new Russian laws would make it possible to rebuild a large reserve force of former soldiers, The Wall Street Journal reports.
Tighter control
The International Institute for Strategic Studies also points out that Russia is gaining greater control over the population, as seen through internet disruptions and the blocking of messaging services.
The reason for this is that Russia may be forced to restructure its society into a more direct war economy, The Wall Street Journal reports.
“The Kremlin is creating systems to suppress public unrest and resistance to its plans to extract resources — more and cheaper — for war,” IISS wrote.
Sources: The Wall Street Journal, ISW, IISS
