Kathrine Frich
Nations often feel secure when vast oceans separate them from global conflicts.
For decades, one island continent has relied on sheer distance as its ultimate defensive shield. But that vast stretch of water is suddenly looking a lot smaller.
The distance disappears
Australia has long viewed foreign militaries as distant concerns. But now, a major policy group says that view is completely outdated.
The Lowy Institute released a fresh report detailing a shift in regional power. Authors Sam Roggeveen and David Vallance argue that the direct strike threat is “real and growing”.
Their research highlights how Beijing can already reach the northern parts of the country. Missiles launched from ships and submarines make the continent vulnerable today.
U.S. military data cited in the report shows the active DF-27 ballistic missile can travel 8,000 kilometers, putting the mainland squarely in range.
A stealthy new horizon
The situation could intensify significantly before the end of the decade. As the researchers note, two major developments will soon expand this reach even further.
A new long-range aircraft is currently in the works. “China is known to be developing the stealthy H-20,” Roggeveen and Vallance write.
The danger extends beyond manned flights. The authors add that “evidence has also emerged of a stealthy drone with the size and range to strike anywhere in Australia.”
Roggeveen clarified to reporters that their work looks purely at hardware. He stated, “I think the growth of the People’s Liberation Army is the most important thing to happen to Australian security since the collapse of the Soviet Union.”
Invisible daily dangers
Despite the alarming missile details, the biggest immediate risks are entirely silent. Physical strikes remain unlikely unless a massive conflict breaks out.
Instead, the authors point to cyber attacks and the severing of undersea cables as the true pressing threats. For an island nation, connectivity is everything. Australia relies heavily on ocean shipping routes and a few digital lifelines to survive.
These invisible tactics are much easier to deploy. Crucially, they are also far harder to trace than a traditional military strike.
Pushing the defense debate
This stark warning arrives at a complicated time for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Downplaying the danger has been the norm. His government usually avoids discussing direct attacks, choosing to talk about broad regional competition instead.
Behind the scenes, the country is waiting to see if the massive AUKUS submarine deal will survive a review in Washington. American officials are checking if their shipyards can actually handle the order.
Australian leaders now have concrete timelines to justify their massive defense spending. The idea of a direct threat is no longer just a theoretical war game.
Sources: Lowy Institute, U.S. military
