Kathrine Frich
The Russian government relies on a secret network of opinion surveys
When a government makes sweeping decisions that affect millions, it needs to know what the public is actually thinking.
But fear often keeps citizens completely silent. To find the truth, authorities have to dig deeper.
A newly revealed system shows exactly how one administration is quietly taking the public temperature.
Behind closed doors
The Russian government relies on a secret network of opinion surveys to gauge public sentiment regarding the war in Ukraine. According to the independent outlet Verstka cited by United24Media, state research centers and security agencies run these covert polls.
The investigation surfaced after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy shared a set of leaked graphs online. The slides forecasted the approval ratings of Russian leader Vladimir Putin. They also projected upcoming election results.
While Zelenskyy claimed the documents were prepared for the highest leadership, sources told Verstka the reality is different. A source close to the administration stated that “stress-scenario testing is standard practice,” explaining that the charts essentially tested worst-case economic scenarios.
Tracking the public
An insider at a political consultancy noted that the leaked graphs showed a conservative baseline. They predicted no major spikes or crashes in approval unless a massive shock occurs. Another military mobilization could easily trigger such a shift.
Gathering accurate data is incredibly difficult. Most citizens are terrified to answer political questions.
A recent study by Russian Field found that a staggering 93 percent of people simply refused to participate in surveys.
To get around this silence, the Federal Protective Service uses specialized tactics.
A sociology lecturer told the outlet that “elderly women often open the doors, and young men hang up.”
Analysts then cross-reference phone numbers with census records to adjust their samples accurately.
Hiding the numbers
The authorities also closely monitor online behavior. According to Verstka, social media reports are sent directly to the presidential administration and “land on the desk of the sociologists” to provide a fuller picture.
Currently, researchers are calling citizens to ask if they notice rising prices or if they would join street protests. But the results of these critical surveys rarely make it into the public eye.
Instead of faking the numbers, the state simply hides the bad news. For example, state pollsters quietly stopped publishing open-format trust ratings after fewer than one in three people named Putin as a trusted figure. As one insider bluntly told Verstka, “When the people reach their breaking point, polls definitely won’t be needed.”
Sources: United24 Media, Verstka, Russian Field
