Kenneth Glad
Two recent surveys provide different views of a presidential contest that remains more than two years away. The results vary according to geography, ideology and gender.
An Emerson College Polling survey places former transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg at 19 percent among Democratic primary voters, narrowly above California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17 percent.
Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez each recorded 13 percent. Former Vice President Kamala Harris followed at 8 percent, ahead of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear at 7 percent and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro at 5 percent.
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker received 3 percent, California Representative Ro Khanna got 2 percent and 13 percent remained undecided.
Small gap warrants caution
Emerson surveyed 1,100 likely 2026 voters nationwide on July 19 and 20. That full sample carried a credibility interval of 2.9 percentage points and included a smaller group questioned about the hypothetical Democratic contest.
Because Buttigieg’s advantage over Newsom was only two points, the figures do not demonstrate a commanding lead. Results drawn from the smaller Democratic subgroup would normally carry greater statistical uncertainty than those for the complete sample.
The poll also showed notable differences between men and women. Newsom received 25 percent among women and 8 percent among men, while Ossoff attracted 18 percent among men and 8 percent among women. Buttigieg’s support was more evenly divided.
According to The Daily Beast, Buttigieg recently campaigned in Iowa for Democratic congressional candidate Sarah Trone. Asked about his immediate priorities, he said: “I’m super focused on this year’s election. The future will come, but right now, we got a very important set of elections in front of us right now.”
Ocasio-Cortez leads in New Hampshire
A separate University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll placed Ocasio-Cortez first among likely Democratic primary voters in the state, at 22 percent. Buttigieg followed with 21 percent.
The findings are not directly comparable. Emerson measured national opinion, while the New Hampshire survey focused on voters in a single early-primary state.
UNH found that Ocasio-Cortez drew much of her backing from socialists and progressives. Buttigieg, who sought the Democratic nomination in 2020, received more evenly distributed support from progressives, liberals and moderates.
Earlier UNH polling had also produced different rankings, illustrating how preferences can shift long before voting begins.
Sources: Emerson College Polling, University of New Hampshire Survey Center, The Daily Beast
